Lazio (K) 2-1 Napoli (K) — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italya - Women's Serie A, 18 Apr 2025

📅18/04/2025 · 🕒20:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 3-0 2nd Score 4-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
60%
1.33
Draw
17%
4.81
Away
23%
7.18
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
40%
2.23
Over 2.5
60%
1.59
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
1.9
No
54%
1.81
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
22%
2-3 Goals
40%
4-5 Goals
27%
6+ Goals
11%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
35%
1/2
6%
1/X
5%
X/1
13%
X/2
6%
X/X
4%
2/1
12%
2/2
11%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
61%
Home Win
71%
-10.5pp
17%
Draw
18%
-0.9pp
23%
Away Win
11%
+11.4pp
40%
Under 2.5
41%
-0.5pp
60%
Over 2.5
59%
+0.5pp
46%
BTTS Yes
49%
-2.4pp
54%
BTTS No
51%
+2.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Lazio (K) EU Bookmakers 75%
Head to Head
AWAY Napoli (K) EU Bookmakers 14%
-29% / -29% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -12% / -11%
1.91/0.56 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.49/2.12
-64% / +51% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -38% / -19%
58% Ball Possession 42%
16 Total Shots 11
7 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
381 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 225 · 70%
35.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 10.7
29.2 Crosses 8.8
1.0 Yellow Cards 1.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Lazio (K)
2W-1D-0L
AWAY Napoli (K)
2.67 Avg Goals (FT) 0.00
1.46 xG 0.62
60% Ball Possession 40%
13 Total Shots 5
5 Shots on Target 2
4 Corners 5
336 Passes 264
77% Pass Accuracy 72%
20 Box Touches 10
10 Crosses 13
1 Yellow Cards 1
08.03.2025 Napoli (K) Napoli (K) 0-4 HT 0-1 Lazio (K) Lazio (K) İTKSA
18.01.2025 Napoli (K) Napoli (K) 0-4 HT 0-3 Lazio (K) Lazio (K) İTKSA
13.10.2024 Lazio (K) Lazio (K) 0-0 Napoli (K) Napoli (K) İTKSA
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Lazio (K)
2-1
AWAY Napoli (K)
2.17 xG 1.43
58% Ball Possession 42%
14 Total Shots 13
3 Shots on Target 6
8 Corners 7
269 Passes 196
76% Pass Accuracy 66%
24 Box Touches 18
24 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Lazio (K) vs Napoli (K)
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Lazio (K) nicked a narrow win over Napoli (K) 2-1. Half-time: 2-0.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Lazio (K) as the likeliest winner at 61%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (60%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Lazio (K) had 58% of the ball to Napoli (K)'s 42%, shots finished 14-13, expected goals 2.17 to 1.43.

For context: across their last 3 meetings in our records, Lazio (K) had the better of it with 2 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.67 goals for Lazio (K) and 0.00 for Napoli (K).

What was the final score of Lazio (K) vs Napoli (K)?

Lazio (K) 2-1 Napoli (K) in the Italya - Women's Serie A on 18/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Lazio (K) vs Napoli (K)?

Before kick-off our model rated a Lazio (K) win the most likely single outcome at about 61%, with the full match-result split Lazio (K) 61%, draw 17%, Napoli (K) 23%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Lazio (K)), Over 2.5 — while BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Lazio (K)) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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