Osaka 4-3 ThespaKusatsu Gunma — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Japan - J3 League, 18 Apr 2025

📅18/04/2025 · 🕒08:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
46%
1.92
Draw
23%
3.18
Away
31%
3.71
Under/Over 2.5
Under Pick
54%
1.56
Over
46%
2.29
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
2.06
No
54%
1.68
Total Goals
0-1
31%
2-3
40%
4-5
21%
6+
8%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
24%
1/2
4%
1/X
5%
X/1
17%
X/2
15%
X/X
10%
2/1
6%
2/2
12%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
Under 2.5 — 54%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Home Win Under 2.5 — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
46%
Home Win
48%
-1.9pp
23%
Draw
28%
-5.3pp
31%
Away Win
24%
+7.2pp
54%
Under 2.5
60%
-6.4pp
46%
Over 2.5
40%
+6.4pp
46%
BTTS Yes
44%
+1.8pp
54%
BTTS No
56%
-1.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Osaka EU Bookmakers 52%
Head to Head
AWAY ThespaKusatsu Gunma EU Bookmakers 27%
+8% / +8% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -19% / -19%
1.23/0.53 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.49/2.97
-20% / +96% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +33% / -54%
52% Ball Possession 48%
12 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
346 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 173 · 58%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
26.4 Crosses 19.1
1.0 Yellow Cards 1.0
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Osaka
4-3
AWAY ThespaKusatsu Gunma
36% Ball Possession 64%
15 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 6
2 Corners 7
171 Passes 358
68% Pass Accuracy 78%
23 Crosses 24
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Osaka vs ThespaKusatsu Gunma
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Osaka nicked a narrow win over ThespaKusatsu Gunma 4-3. It was 0-2 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half. 7 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Osaka as the likeliest winner at 46%, and the 4-3 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 46%.

On the day, Osaka had 36% of the ball to ThespaKusatsu Gunma's 64%, shots finished 15-10.

What was the final score of Osaka vs ThespaKusatsu Gunma?

Osaka 4-3 ThespaKusatsu Gunma in the Japan - J3 League on 18/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Osaka vs ThespaKusatsu Gunma?

Before kick-off our model rated a Osaka win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split Osaka 46%, draw 23%, ThespaKusatsu Gunma 31%. The final score 4-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Osaka) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Osaka) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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