Nacional vs Alverca Prediction — Model Probabilities
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Nacional v Alverca — Team-Based Signals
Nacional vs Alverca Head-to-Head — Last 3 Meetings
2-1
HT 0-1
Nacional
POR
3-0
HT 2-0
Alverca
POR
Nacional 1-0 Alverca — Actual Match Statistics
Nacional edged past Alverca 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.
As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Nacional as the likeliest winner at 42%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead.
Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.
On the day, Nacional had 50% of the ball to Alverca's 50%, shots finished 10-7, expected goals 1.01 to 0.36.
Coming into the game, across their last 3 meetings in our records, Alverca led the recent series with 2 wins. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Nacional and 1.00 for Alverca.
What was the final score of Nacional vs Alverca?
Nacional 1-0 Alverca in the Portugal - Premier League on 18/04/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Nacional vs Alverca?
Before kick-off our model rated a Nacional win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Nacional 42%, draw 26%, Alverca 32%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Nacional), Under 2.5 — while BTTS Yes went the other way.