Catanzaro 4-2 Brescia — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Serie B, 18 May 2024

Catanzaro
4-2 HT 1-1
Brescia
📅18/05/2024 · 🕒21:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✗ 2nd Score 2-1 ✗
Italy - Serie B – 2023/2024

Catanzaro vs Brescia Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
44%
2.09
Draw
28%
3.11
Away
28%
3.25
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
1.71
Over 2.5
49%
2.03
Both Teams to Score
Yes
55%
1.82
No
45%
1.88
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
2.86
2-3 Goals
40%
1.77
4-5 Goals
25%
4.07
6+ Goals
10%
19.2
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
15%
3.02
1/2
7%
34.5
1/X
5%
12.95
X/1
16%
4.69
X/2
9%
6.85
X/X
18%
4.1
2/1 EV+ ✗
12%
28.5
2/2
12%
5.18
2/X
6%
13.4
Value flag · 2/1 at 28.5 — our 12% vs market 1.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
44%
Home Win
44%
-0.4pp
29%
Draw
29%
-0.2pp
28%
Away Win
27%
+0.6pp
51%
Under 2.5
55%
-3.8pp
49%
Over 2.5
45%
+3.8pp
55%
BTTS Yes
51%
+4.0pp
45%
BTTS No
49%
-4.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Catanzaro v Brescia — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Catanzaro EU Bookmakers 48%
Head to Head
AWAY Brescia EU Bookmakers 31%
-6% / -6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +4% / +17%
1.34/1.04 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.17/1.26
+4% / -30% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +11% / +2%
52% Ball Possession 48%
14 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
341 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 264 · 72%
19.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.7
20.8 Crosses 18.5
2.0 Yellow Cards 2.5

Catanzaro vs Brescia Head-to-Head — Last 4 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Catanzaro
0W-1D-3L
AWAY Brescia
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
0.95 xG 1.51
59% Ball Possession 41%
12 Total Shots 14
6 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 6
444 Passes 283
86% Pass Accuracy 78%
21 Box Touches 22
22 Crosses 20
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
16.03.2024 Brescia Brescia 1-1 HT 0-1 Catanzaro Catanzaro İTB
23.12.2023 Catanzaro Catanzaro 2-3 HT 2-0 Brescia Brescia İTB
18.03.2006 Brescia Brescia 2-0 HT 0-0 Catanzaro Catanzaro İTB
25.10.2005 Catanzaro Catanzaro 1-2 HT 1-1 Brescia Brescia İTB

Catanzaro 4-2 Brescia — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Catanzaro
4-2
AWAY Brescia
2.14 xG 2.21
60% Ball Possession 40%
24 Total Shots 17
9 Shots on Target 8
10 Corners 4
581 Passes 344
83% Pass Accuracy 73%
47 Box Touches 26
36 Crosses 23
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Catanzaro vs Brescia
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Catanzaro beat Brescia 4-2. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Catanzaro as the likeliest winner at 44%, and the 4-2 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — both teams to score (55%) came in.

On the day, Catanzaro had 60% of the ball to Brescia's 40%, shots finished 24-17, expected goals 2.14 to 2.21.

For context: across their last 4 meetings in our records, Brescia led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Catanzaro and 2.00 for Brescia.

What was the final score of Catanzaro vs Brescia?

Catanzaro 4-2 Brescia in the Italy - Serie B on 18/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Catanzaro vs Brescia?

Before kick-off our model rated a Catanzaro win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Catanzaro 44%, draw 29%, Brescia 28%. The final score 4-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Catanzaro), BTTS Yes — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Catanzaro) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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