Libertad 0-2 El Nacional — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Ecuador - Premier, 18 May 2024

📅18/05/2024 · 🕒21:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
36%
2.67
Draw
28%
3.11
Away
36%
2.47
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
59%
1.8
Over 2.5
41%
1.91
Both Teams to Score
Yes
44%
1.7
No
56%
2.03
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
35%
2-3 Goals
39%
4-5 Goals
18%
6+ Goals
8%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
1/2
8%
1/X
9%
X/1
11%
X/2
11%
X/X
13%
2/1
7%
2/2
17%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
35%
Home Win
34%
+1.3pp
28%
Draw
29%
-0.7pp
36%
Away Win
37%
-0.6pp
59%
Under 2.5
52%
+7.5pp
41%
Over 2.5
48%
-7.5pp
44%
BTTS Yes
55%
-11.1pp
56%
BTTS No
45%
+11.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Libertad EU Bookmakers 37%
Head to Head
AWAY El Nacional EU Bookmakers 40%
+8% / +8% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -6% / -9%
0.84/0.92 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.22/1.47
-61% / +150% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -3% / -17%
49% Ball Possession 51%
10 Total Shots 11
3 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 6
290 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 284 · 75%
16.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.9
20.4 Crosses 23.2
1.8 Yellow Cards 2.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Libertad
1W-1D-4L
AWAY El Nacional
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 2.17
0.71 xG 1.65
52% Ball Possession 48%
10 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 5
210 Passes 148
66% Pass Accuracy 60%
16 Box Touches 16
20 Crosses 22
3 Yellow Cards 3
26.09.2023 Libertad Libertad 0-1 HT 0-0 El Nacional El Nacional EKV1
23.04.2023 El Nacional El Nacional 4-2 HT 2-2 Libertad Libertad EKV1
21.10.2022 El Nacional El Nacional 4-2 HT 2-1 Libertad Libertad EKV2
18.10.2022 Libertad Libertad 1-1 HT 1-1 El Nacional El Nacional EKV2
15.07.2022 Libertad Libertad 1-0 HT 0-0 El Nacional El Nacional EKV2
29.04.2022 El Nacional El Nacional 3-0 HT 2-0 Libertad Libertad EKV2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Libertad
0-2
AWAY El Nacional
0.25 xG 0.57
59% Ball Possession 41%
6 Total Shots 9
0 Shots on Target 5
2 Corners 2
323 Passes 187
76% Pass Accuracy 62%
12 Box Touches 11
17 Crosses 8
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Libertad vs El Nacional
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

El Nacional got the better of Libertad 2-0 away from home. Half-time: 0-1.

Our pre-match split (35% / 28% / 36%) promised a tight game; El Nacional found the edge the numbers couldn't. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (59%), no to both teams scoring (56%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Libertad had 59% of the ball to El Nacional's 41%, shots finished 6-9, expected goals 0.25 to 0.57.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, El Nacional led the recent series with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Libertad and 2.17 for El Nacional.

What was the final score of Libertad vs El Nacional?

Libertad 0-2 El Nacional in the Ecuador - Premier on 18/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Libertad vs El Nacional?

Before kick-off our model rated an El Nacional win the most likely single outcome at about 36%, with the full match-result split Libertad 35%, draw 28%, El Nacional 36%. The final score 0-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (El Nacional), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (El Nacional) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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