Caernarfon Town 3-1 Penybont — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Wales - Premier League, 18 May 2024

Caernarfon Town
3-1 HT 3-0
Penybont
📅18/05/2024 · 🕒16:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 ✗ 2nd Score 1-1 ✗
Wales - Premier League – 2023/2024

Caernarfon Town vs Penybont Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
31%
2.02
Draw
25%
3.54
Away
44%
3.02
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
2.33
Over 2.5
50%
1.54
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.49
No
52%
2.44
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
25%
4.92
2-3 Goals
40%
1.94
4-5 Goals
26%
2.78
6+ Goals
9%
7.43
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.92 — our 25% vs market 15.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
12%
1/2
8%
1/X
5%
X/1
13%
X/2
12%
X/X
11%
2/1
6%
2/2
24%
2/X
9%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
31%
Home Win
46%
-14.8pp
25%
Draw
25%
+0.5pp
44%
Away Win
30%
+14.2pp
50%
Under 2.5
39%
+11.0pp
50%
Over 2.5
61%
-11.0pp
48%
BTTS Yes
63%
-14.9pp
52%
BTTS No
37%
+14.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Caernarfon Town v Penybont — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Caernarfon Town EU Bookmakers 50%
Head to Head
AWAY Penybont EU Bookmakers 33%
+5% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +9% / +17%
1.80/1.09 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.83/1.09
+14% / -3% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +56% / +32%
55% Ball Possession 45%
13 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
355 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 272 · 74%
– Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area –
– Crosses –
2.7 Yellow Cards 2.4

Caernarfon Town vs Penybont Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Caernarfon Town
2W-0D-4L
AWAY Penybont
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 2.33
48% Ball Possession 52%
8 Total Shots 13
3 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 6
The Meetings
04.11.2023 Caernarfon Town Caernarfon Town 2-4 HT 0-2 Penybont Penybont GAL
16.09.2023 Penybont Penybont 3-2 HT 1-1 Caernarfon Town Caernarfon Town GAL
07.01.2023 Penybont Penybont 5-1 HT 3-0 Caernarfon Town Caernarfon Town GAL
05.11.2022 Caernarfon Town Caernarfon Town 0-2 HT 0-1 Penybont Penybont GAL
15.04.2022 Caernarfon Town Caernarfon Town 1-0 HT 0-0 Penybont Penybont GAL
05.03.2022 Penybont Penybont 0-3 HT 0-2 Caernarfon Town Caernarfon Town GAL

Caernarfon Town 3-1 Penybont — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Caernarfon Town
3-1
AWAY Penybont
45% Ball Possession 55%
14 Total Shots 15
8 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 7
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Caernarfon Town vs Penybont
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Caernarfon Town beat Penybont 3-1. Half-time: 3-0.

Our pre-match lean was Penybont at 44%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 48%.

On the day, Caernarfon Town had 45% of the ball to Penybont's 55%, shots finished 14-15.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Penybont led the recent series with 4 wins. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Caernarfon Town and 2.33 for Penybont.

What was the final score of Caernarfon Town vs Penybont?

Caernarfon Town 3-1 Penybont in the Wales - Premier League on 18/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Caernarfon Town vs Penybont?

Before kick-off our model rated an Penybont win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Caernarfon Town 31%, draw 25%, Penybont 44%. The final score 3-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Penybont) ✗ BTTS No
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