Sporting Cristal 5-1 Union Comercio — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Peru - Premier League, 18 May 2024

📅18/05/2024 · 🕒23:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 3-0 2nd Score 4-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
64%
1.22
Draw
21%
5.71
Away
15%
8.9
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
42%
2.96
Over 2.5
58%
1.36
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.85
No
53%
1.85
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
22%
2-3 Goals
37%
4-5 Goals
28%
6+ Goals
13%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
34%
1/2
4%
1/X
8%
X/1
23%
X/2
5%
X/X
7%
2/1
8%
2/2
5%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
64%
Home Win
77%
-12.9pp
21%
Draw
14%
+6.6pp
15%
Away Win
8%
+6.2pp
42%
Under 2.5
30%
+11.9pp
58%
Over 2.5
70%
-11.9pp
47%
BTTS Yes
50%
-2.9pp
53%
BTTS No
50%
+2.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Sporting Cristal EU Bookmakers 82%
Head to Head
AWAY Union Comercio EU Bookmakers 11%
-4% / +4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -1% / +6%
2.18/0.86 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.62/1.92
+16% / -26% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +4% / -6%
61% Ball Possession 39%
19 Total Shots 10
8 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 3
438 · 86% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 214 · 73%
28.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 10.7
24.3 Crosses 10.1
2.4 Yellow Cards 3.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Sporting Cristal
4W-0D-2L
AWAY Union Comercio
2.33 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
1.89 xG 1.42
54% Ball Possession 46%
15 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 3
283 Passes 260
79% Pass Accuracy 78%
24 Box Touches 20
18 Crosses 19
2 Yellow Cards 2
02.07.2023 Sporting Cristal Sporting Cristal 3-0 HT 2-0 Union Comercio Union Comercio PER
13.05.2023 Union Comercio Union Comercio 1-6 HT 1-2 Sporting Cristal Sporting Cristal PER
04.07.2021 Sporting Cristal Sporting Cristal 2-0 HT 0-0 Union Comercio Union Comercio PERKB
25.08.2019 Union Comercio Union Comercio 2-1 HT 1-1 Sporting Cristal Sporting Cristal PER
09.03.2019 Sporting Cristal Sporting Cristal 1-0 HT 1-0 Union Comercio Union Comercio PER
12.09.2018 Union Comercio Union Comercio 2-1 HT 1-0 Sporting Cristal Sporting Cristal PER
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Sporting Cristal
5-1
AWAY Union Comercio
2.09 xG 0.43
57% Ball Possession 43%
22 Total Shots 9
7 Shots on Target 3
8 Corners 3
404 Passes 309
82% Pass Accuracy 79%
31 Box Touches 5
30 Crosses 6
0 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Sporting Cristal vs Union Comercio
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Sporting Cristal ran out comfortable winners over Union Comercio 5-1. Half-time: 4-1. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Sporting Cristal as the likeliest winner at 64%, and the 5-1 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (58%) came in.

On the day, Sporting Cristal had 57% of the ball to Union Comercio's 43%, shots finished 22-9, expected goals 2.09 to 0.43.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Sporting Cristal had the better of it with 4 wins. Those games averaged 2.33 goals for Sporting Cristal and 0.83 for Union Comercio.

What was the final score of Sporting Cristal vs Union Comercio?

Sporting Cristal 5-1 Union Comercio in the Peru - Premier League on 18/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Sporting Cristal vs Union Comercio?

Before kick-off our model rated a Sporting Cristal win the most likely single outcome at about 64%, with the full match-result split Sporting Cristal 64%, draw 21%, Union Comercio 15%. The final score 5-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Sporting Cristal), Over 2.5 — while BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Sporting Cristal) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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