Northern Virginia 2-1 Patuxent — Result, Statistics & Match Review — USA - USL League 2, 18 May 2024

📅18/05/2024 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
43%
1.82
Draw
25%
3.8
Away
32%
3.34
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
2.38
Over 2.5
49%
1.52
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.5
No
49%
2.4
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
2-3 Goals
43%
4-5 Goals
20%
6+ Goals
12%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
26%
1/2
7%
1/X
9%
X/1
10%
X/2
9%
X/X
11%
2/1
7%
2/2
16%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
43%
Home Win
51%
-7.4pp
24%
Draw
23%
+1.5pp
32%
Away Win
26%
+5.9pp
51%
Under 2.5
38%
+12.8pp
49%
Over 2.5
62%
-12.8pp
51%
BTTS Yes
62%
-11.2pp
49%
BTTS No
38%
+11.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Northern Virginia EU Bookmakers 55%
Head to Head
AWAY Patuxent EU Bookmakers 30%
+43% / +43% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +0%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
+144% / Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) /
49% Ball Possession 51%
14 Total Shots 13
6 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 5
332 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 273 · 74%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.0 Yellow Cards
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Northern Virginia
1W-0D-0L
AWAY Patuxent
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.00
69% Ball Possession 31%
13 Total Shots 6
3 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 2
1 Yellow Cards 2
14.05.2023 Northern Virginia Northern Virginia 1-0 HT 0-0 Patuxent USL2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Northern Virginia
2-1
AWAY Patuxent
53% Ball Possession 47%
15 Total Shots 16
7 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Northern Virginia vs Patuxent
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Northern Virginia nicked a narrow win over Patuxent 2-1. Half-time: 2-0.

As we said in the preview, our model had Northern Virginia as the likeliest winner at 43%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Northern Virginia had 53% of the ball to Patuxent's 47%, shots finished 15-16.

What was the final score of Northern Virginia vs Patuxent?

Northern Virginia 2-1 Patuxent in the USA - USL League 2 on 18/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Northern Virginia vs Patuxent?

Before kick-off our model rated a Northern Virginia win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Northern Virginia 43%, draw 24%, Patuxent 32%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Northern Virginia), BTTS Yes — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Northern Virginia) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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