Universitatea Craiova 3-1 FC Arges — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Romania - 1st Division, 18 Jul 2025

📅18/07/2025 · 🕒21:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
49%
1.61
Draw
27%
3.72
Away
24%
4.75
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
55%
1.86
Over 2.5
45%
1.86
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
1.95
No
54%
1.76
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
30%
3.07
2-3 Goals
42%
1.75
4-5 Goals
19%
3.52
6+ Goals
9%
14.25
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.07 — our 30% vs market 25.9%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
1/2
5%
1/X
9%
X/1
19%
X/2
10%
X/X
10%
2/1
13%
2/2
9%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
49%
Home Win
58%
-9.5pp
27%
Draw
24%
+3.4pp
24%
Away Win
18%
+6.0pp
55%
Under 2.5
50%
+4.9pp
45%
Over 2.5
50%
-4.9pp
46%
BTTS Yes
47%
-1.0pp
54%
BTTS No
53%
+1.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Universitatea Craiova EU Bookmakers 62%
Head to Head
AWAY FC Arges EU Bookmakers 21%
+0% / -4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +2% / -1%
1.82/0.88 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.70/2.00
+1% / +3% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -19% / +27%
55% Ball Possession 45%
14 Total Shots 8
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
397 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 300 · 77%
27.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
19.2 Crosses
1.8 Yellow Cards 2.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Universitatea Craiova
3W-0D-3L
AWAY FC Arges
1.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
60% Ball Possession 40%
15 Total Shots 8
6 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 2
1 Yellow Cards 3
01.03.2023 Universitatea Craiova Universitatea Craiova 1-0 HT 0-0 FC Arges FC Arges ROM
07.12.2022 FC Arges FC Arges 2-1 HT 0-0 Universitatea Craiova Universitatea Craiova ROMK
07.10.2022 FC Arges FC Arges 1-0 HT 0-0 Universitatea Craiova Universitatea Craiova ROM
25.04.2022 FC Arges FC Arges 0-4 HT 0-1 Universitatea Craiova Universitatea Craiova ROM
11.03.2022 Universitatea Craiova Universitatea Craiova 3-0 HT 1-0 FC Arges FC Arges ROM
21.11.2021 FC Arges FC Arges 3-2 HT 1-1 Universitatea Craiova Universitatea Craiova ROM
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Universitatea Craiova
3-1
AWAY FC Arges
0.98 xG 0.99
65% Ball Possession 35%
8 Total Shots 11
2 Shots on Target 2
1 Corners 4
381 Passes 160
81% Pass Accuracy 69%
15 Box Touches 20
6 Crosses 22
2 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Universitatea Craiova vs FC Arges
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Universitatea Craiova saw off FC Arges 3-1. Half-time: 2-1.

As we said in the preview, our model had Universitatea Craiova as the likeliest winner at 49%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Universitatea Craiova had 65% of the ball to FC Arges's 35%, shots finished 8-11, expected goals 0.98 to 0.99.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 3 apiece. Those games averaged 1.83 goals for Universitatea Craiova and 1.00 for FC Arges.

What was the final score of Universitatea Craiova vs FC Arges?

Universitatea Craiova 3-1 FC Arges in the Romania - 1st Division on 18/07/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Universitatea Craiova vs FC Arges?

Before kick-off our model rated a Universitatea Craiova win the most likely single outcome at about 49%, with the full match-result split Universitatea Craiova 49%, draw 27%, FC Arges 24%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Universitatea Craiova) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Universitatea Craiova) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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