New Mexico United 3-2 Monterey Bay — Result, Statistics & Match Review — USL Championship, 18 Aug 2024

📅18/08/2024 · 🕒04:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
49%
1.57
Draw
26%
3.94
Away
25%
4.47
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
2.18
Over 2.5
47%
1.62
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
1.7
No
54%
2.03
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
30%
4.21
2-3 Goals
41%
1.86
4-5 Goals
21%
3.02
6+ Goals
8%
9.35
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.21 — our 30% vs market 18.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
29%
1/2
6%
1/X
9%
X/1
15%
X/2
9%
X/X
13%
2/1
6%
2/2
9%
2/X
4%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
49%
Home Win
59%
-10.1pp
26%
Draw
22%
+4.4pp
25%
Away Win
19%
+5.6pp
53%
Under 2.5
42%
+11.2pp
47%
Over 2.5
58%
-11.2pp
46%
BTTS Yes
55%
-8.9pp
54%
BTTS No
45%
+8.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME New Mexico United EU Bookmakers 64%
Head to Head
AWAY Monterey Bay EU Bookmakers 22%
-7% / -3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -4% / -8%
1.74/1.02 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.90/1.59
-12% / -23% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -18% / -11%
52% Ball Possession 48%
14 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
341 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 296 · 76%
23.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 15.5
14.5 Crosses 18.5
2.4 Yellow Cards 2.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME New Mexico United
2W-1D-2L
AWAY Monterey Bay
1.40 Avg Goals (FT) 1.40
1.20 xG 1.02
46% Ball Possession 54%
11 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 4
299 Passes 341
73% Pass Accuracy 77%
14 Box Touches 14
14 Crosses 17
2 Yellow Cards 2
03.06.2024 Monterey Bay Monterey Bay 1-0 HT 0-0 New Mexico United New Mexico United USLP
14.05.2023 New Mexico United New Mexico United 2-1 HT 1-0 Monterey Bay Monterey Bay USLP
09.04.2023 Monterey Bay Monterey Bay 4-2 HT 2-1 New Mexico United New Mexico United USLP
21.08.2022 New Mexico United New Mexico United 2-0 HT 2-0 Monterey Bay Monterey Bay USLP
03.07.2022 Monterey Bay Monterey Bay 1-1 HT 1-1 New Mexico United New Mexico United USLP
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME New Mexico United
3-2
AWAY Monterey Bay
1.56 xG 1.15
58% Ball Possession 42%
18 Total Shots 11
7 Shots on Target 4
9 Corners 3
481 Passes 320
88% Pass Accuracy 83%
29 Box Touches 13
13 Crosses 15
1 Yellow Cards 1
FAQ New Mexico United vs Monterey Bay
Match summary & frequently asked questions

New Mexico United edged past Monterey Bay 3-2 in the USL Championship on 18 Aug 2024. Half-time: 2-1. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 46%.

On the day, New Mexico United had 58% of the ball to Monterey Bay's 42%, shots finished 18-11, expected goals 1.56 to 1.15.

Across their last 5 meetings in our records, honours are even at 2 apiece, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.40 goals for New Mexico United and 1.40 for Monterey Bay.

What was the final score of New Mexico United vs Monterey Bay?

New Mexico United 3-2 Monterey Bay in the USL Championship on 18/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for New Mexico United vs Monterey Bay?

Before kick-off our model rated a New Mexico United win the most likely single outcome at about 49%, with the full match-result split New Mexico United 49%, draw 26%, Monterey Bay 25%. The final score 3-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (New Mexico United) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (New Mexico United) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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