Orange County SC 0-1 El Paso Locomotive — Result, Statistics & Match Review — USL Championship, 18 Aug 2024

📅18/08/2024 · 🕒05:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
45%
1.89
Draw
28%
3.45
Away
27%
3.48
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
55%
1.74
Over 2.5
45%
2.0
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.88
No
53%
1.82
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
31%
2.87
2-3 Goals
39%
1.77
4-5 Goals
20%
4.06
6+ Goals
10%
19.05
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.87 — our 31% vs market 29.0%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
22%
1/2
6%
1/X
10%
X/1
11%
X/2
10%
X/X
12%
2/1
11%
2/2
12%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
45%
Home Win
49%
-4.4pp
28%
Draw
26%
+2.6pp
27%
Away Win
25%
+1.8pp
55%
Under 2.5
54%
+0.9pp
45%
Over 2.5
46%
-0.9pp
47%
BTTS Yes
49%
-2.3pp
53%
BTTS No
51%
+2.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Orange County SC EU Bookmakers 53%
Head to Head
AWAY El Paso Locomotive EU Bookmakers 29%
-7% / +3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +5% / +9%
1.14/0.94 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.15/1.47
-23% / +13% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +3% / -17%
45% Ball Possession 55%
12 Total Shots 8
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
316 · 73% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 383 · 82%
17.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.2
16.5 Crosses 13.0
2.1 Yellow Cards 3.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Orange County SC
1W-3D-2L
AWAY El Paso Locomotive
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
0.99 xG 0.85
47% Ball Possession 52%
12 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 2
5 Corners 4
349 Passes 408
81% Pass Accuracy 85%
16 Box Touches 15
18 Crosses 12
2 Yellow Cards 4
22.10.2023 Orange County SC Orange County SC 1-0 HT 1-0 El Paso Locomotive El Paso Locomotive USLP
10.09.2023 Orange County SC Orange County SC 0-0 HT 0-0 El Paso Locomotive El Paso Locomotive USLP
09.04.2023 El Paso Locomotive El Paso Locomotive 1-0 HT 1-0 Orange County SC Orange County SC USLP
09.10.2022 El Paso Locomotive El Paso Locomotive 2-1 HT 1-0 Orange County SC Orange County SC USLP
22.05.2022 Orange County SC Orange County SC 2-2 HT 1-0 El Paso Locomotive El Paso Locomotive USLP
04.09.2021 Orange County SC Orange County SC 2-2 HT 0-1 El Paso Locomotive El Paso Locomotive USLP
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Orange County SC
0-1
AWAY El Paso Locomotive
1.09 xG 1.37
57% Ball Possession 43%
15 Total Shots 17
5 Shots on Target 6
3 Corners 5
491 Passes 356
90% Pass Accuracy 83%
30 Box Touches 18
32 Crosses 5
4 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Orange County SC vs El Paso Locomotive
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

El Paso Locomotive squeezed past Orange County SC 1-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was Orange County SC at 45%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (55%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Orange County SC had 57% of the ball to El Paso Locomotive's 43%, shots finished 15-17, expected goals 1.09 to 1.37.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, El Paso Locomotive led the recent series with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Orange County SC and 1.17 for El Paso Locomotive.

What was the final score of Orange County SC vs El Paso Locomotive?

Orange County SC 0-1 El Paso Locomotive in the USL Championship on 18/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Orange County SC vs El Paso Locomotive?

Before kick-off our model rated a Orange County SC win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split Orange County SC 45%, draw 28%, El Paso Locomotive 27%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (Orange County SC) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Orange County SC) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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