Botafogo 3-3 Mirassol FC — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Serie A, 18 Sep 2025

Botafogo
3-3 HT 3-0
Mirassol FC
📅18/09/2025 · 🕒01:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 0-0 ✗
Brazil - Serie A – 2025

Botafogo vs Mirassol FC Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
46%
1.72
Draw
28%
3.45
Away
26%
4.31
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
59%
1.74
Over 2.5
41%
2.0
Both Teams to Score
Yes
44%
1.96
No
56%
1.75
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
35%
2.76
2-3 Goals
37%
1.73
4-5 Goals
20%
3.88
6+ Goals
8%
17.9
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.76 — our 35% vs market 29.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
2.22
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
8%
14.55
X/1
18%
4.05
X/2
10%
9.42
X/X
14%
4.55
2/1
7%
25.5
2/2
11%
8.02
2/X
6%
16.3
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
46%
Home Win
54%
-8.2pp
28%
Draw
26%
+2.0pp
26%
Away Win
20%
+6.2pp
59%
Under 2.5
54%
+5.0pp
41%
Over 2.5
46%
-5.0pp
44%
BTTS Yes
47%
-3.2pp
56%
BTTS No
53%
+3.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Botafogo v Mirassol FC — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Botafogo EU Bookmakers 58%
Head to Head
AWAY Mirassol FC EU Bookmakers 23%
-2% / +12% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +24% / +24%
1.49/0.88 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.45/1.28
+20% / +9% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +30% / +75%
53% Ball Possession 47%
15 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
389 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 322 · 79%
24.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.5
21.9 Crosses 14.2
1.9 Yellow Cards 2.8

Botafogo 3-3 Mirassol FC — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Botafogo
3-3
AWAY Mirassol FC
2.21 xG 1.55
56% Ball Possession 44%
15 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 6
6 Corners 5
416 Passes 303
87% Pass Accuracy 82%
27 Box Touches 16
22 Crosses 18
4 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Botafogo vs Mirassol FC
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Botafogo and Mirassol FC couldn't be separated, finishing 3-3. It was 3-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match lean was Botafogo at 46%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (59%), no to both teams scoring (56%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Botafogo had 56% of the ball to Mirassol FC's 44%, shots finished 15-12, expected goals 2.21 to 1.55.

What was the final score of Botafogo vs Mirassol FC?

Botafogo 3-3 Mirassol FC in the Brazil - Serie A on 18/09/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Botafogo vs Mirassol FC?

Before kick-off our model rated a Botafogo win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split Botafogo 46%, draw 28%, Mirassol FC 26%. The final score 3-3 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Botafogo) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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