Deportivo Alaves 2-3 Valladolid — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Spain - Primera Liga, 18 Oct 2024

Deportivo Alaves
2-3
Valladolid
📅18/10/2024 · 🕒00:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 0-0 ✗
Spain - Primera Liga – 2024/2025

Deportivo Alaves vs Valladolid Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
48%
1.61
Draw
32%
3.54
Away
20%
4.85
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
61%
1.67
Over 2.5
39%
2.1
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
2.13
No
55%
1.63
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
31%
2.67
2-3 Goals
41%
1.77
4-5 Goals
20%
4.4
6+ Goals
8%
22.7
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
24%
2.1
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
7%
17.1
X/1
14%
3.57
X/2
9%
10.6
X/X
16%
4.57
2/1
10%
27.5
2/2
6%
9.39
2/X
9%
18.2
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
48%
Home Win
58%
-9.7pp
32%
Draw
25%
+6.9pp
20%
Away Win
17%
+2.7pp
61%
Under 2.5
56%
+4.5pp
39%
Over 2.5
44%
-4.5pp
45%
BTTS Yes
43%
+2.2pp
55%
BTTS No
57%
-2.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Deportivo Alaves v Valladolid — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Deportivo Alaves EU Bookmakers 62%
Head to Head
AWAY Valladolid EU Bookmakers 21%
+17% / +18% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +4% / -11%
1.86/0.65 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.82/1.75
-10% / +150% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -5% / +5%
54% Ball Possession 46%
15 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 4
344 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 287 · 75%
26.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 13.3
23.0 Crosses 16.3
1.7 Yellow Cards 3.2

Deportivo Alaves vs Valladolid Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Deportivo Alaves
4W-1D-1L
AWAY Valladolid
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 0.50
1.72 xG 0.64
50% Ball Possession 50%
13 Total Shots 8
4 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 3
276 Passes 279
74% Pass Accuracy 74%
21 Box Touches 11
18 Crosses 15
3 Yellow Cards 3
The Meetings
04.01.2023 Deportivo Alaves Deportivo Alaves 1-0 HT 1-0 Valladolid Valladolid İSPK
05.02.2021 Deportivo Alaves Deportivo Alaves 1-0 HT 0-0 Valladolid Valladolid İS1
25.10.2020 Valladolid Valladolid 0-2 HT 0-0 Deportivo Alaves Deportivo Alaves İS1
04.07.2020 Valladolid Valladolid 1-0 HT 0-0 Deportivo Alaves Deportivo Alaves İS1
09.11.2019 Deportivo Alaves Deportivo Alaves 3-0 HT 2-0 Valladolid Valladolid İS1
19.04.2019 Deportivo Alaves Deportivo Alaves 2-2 HT 2-1 Valladolid Valladolid İS1

Deportivo Alaves 2-3 Valladolid — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Deportivo Alaves
2-3
AWAY Valladolid
62% Ball Possession 38%
10 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 6
325 Passes 166
78% Pass Accuracy 67%
POST-MATCH Deportivo Alaves vs Valladolid
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Valladolid squeezed past Deportivo Alaves 3-2 away from home. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match lean was Deportivo Alaves at 48%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (61%), no to both teams scoring (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Deportivo Alaves had 62% of the ball to Valladolid's 38%, shots finished 10-12.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Deportivo Alaves had the better of it with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Deportivo Alaves and 0.50 for Valladolid.

What was the final score of Deportivo Alaves vs Valladolid?

Deportivo Alaves 2-3 Valladolid in the Spain - Primera Liga on 18/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Deportivo Alaves vs Valladolid?

Before kick-off our model rated a Deportivo Alaves win the most likely single outcome at about 48%, with the full match-result split Deportivo Alaves 48%, draw 32%, Valladolid 20%. The final score 2-3 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Deportivo Alaves) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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