Borussia Dortmund 2-1 St. Pauli — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - Bundesliga, 18 Oct 2024

Borussia Dortmund
2-1
St. Pauli
📅18/10/2024 · 🕒00:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 2-0 ✗
Germany - Bundesliga – 2024/2025

Borussia Dortmund vs St. Pauli Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home Pick
60%
1.33
Draw
22%
4.81
Away
18%
6.69
Under/Over 2.5
Under
44%
2.38
Over
56%
1.52
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.85
No
53%
1.85
Total Goals
0-1 ✗
22%
4.96
2-3
37%
1.95
4-5
27%
2.77
6+
14%
7.34
Value flag · 0-1 at 4.96 — our 22% vs market 15.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
32%
1.54
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
8%
21.05
X/1
20%
3.53
X/2
9%
17.95
X/X
8%
7.71
2/1
8%
21.45
2/2
4%
13.65
2/X
6%
21.3
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
◎
Our Pick
Borussia Dortmund win — 60% ✓
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Home Win — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
60%
Home Win
71%
-10.4pp
22%
Draw
18%
+4.0pp
18%
Away Win
12%
+6.4pp
44%
Under 2.5
38%
+5.6pp
56%
Over 2.5
62%
-5.6pp
47%
BTTS Yes
50%
-3.1pp
53%
BTTS No
50%
+3.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Borussia Dortmund v St. Pauli — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Borussia Dortmund EU Bookmakers 75%
Head to Head
AWAY St. Pauli EU Bookmakers 15%
+0% / +1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +27% / +33%
2.41/1.08 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.11/1.16
+27% / -23% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +150% / +150%
63% Ball Possession 37%
16 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
463 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 227 · 68%
33.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 15.0
18.5 Crosses 9.0
1.4 Yellow Cards 3.0

Borussia Dortmund vs St. Pauli Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Borussia Dortmund
4W-1D-1L
AWAY St. Pauli
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
2.01 xG 0.76
57% Ball Possession 43%
16 Total Shots 10
8 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
537 Passes 241
84% Pass Accuracy 68%
36 Box Touches 18
16 Crosses 11
The Meetings
18.01.2022 St. Pauli St. Pauli 2-1 HT 2-0 Borussia Dortmund Borussia Dortmund AFK
08.09.2015 St. Pauli St. Pauli 1-2 HT 1-2 Borussia Dortmund Borussia Dortmund HAZ
28.10.2014 St. Pauli St. Pauli 0-3 HT 0-2 Borussia Dortmund Borussia Dortmund AFK
19.02.2011 Borussia Dortmund Borussia Dortmund 2-0 HT 1-0 St. Pauli St. Pauli AL1
25.09.2010 St. Pauli St. Pauli 1-3 HT 1-1 Borussia Dortmund Borussia Dortmund AL1
03.03.2002 Borussia Dortmund Borussia Dortmund 1-1 HT 0-1 St. Pauli St. Pauli AL1

Borussia Dortmund 2-1 St. Pauli — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Borussia Dortmund
2-1
AWAY St. Pauli
75% Ball Possession 25%
20 Total Shots 10
7 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 1
713 Passes 189
93% Pass Accuracy 76%
POST-MATCH Borussia Dortmund vs St. Pauli
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Borussia Dortmund edged past St. Pauli 2-1.

As we said in the preview, our model had Borussia Dortmund as the likeliest winner at 60%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (56%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Borussia Dortmund had 75% of the ball to St. Pauli's 25%, shots finished 20-10.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Borussia Dortmund had the better of it with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Borussia Dortmund and 0.83 for St. Pauli.

What was the final score of Borussia Dortmund vs St. Pauli?

Borussia Dortmund 2-1 St. Pauli in the Germany - Bundesliga on 18/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Borussia Dortmund vs St. Pauli?

Before kick-off our model rated a Borussia Dortmund win the most likely single outcome at about 60%, with the full match-result split Borussia Dortmund 60%, draw 22%, St. Pauli 18%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Borussia Dortmund), Over 2.5 — while BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Borussia Dortmund) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →