CA Sarmiento 1-1 Gimnasia La Plata — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Argentina - Premier League, 18 Oct 2024

📅18/10/2024 · 🕒23:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
37%
2.12
Draw
32%
2.83
Away
31%
3.44
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
64%
1.44
Over 2.5
36%
2.63
Both Teams to Score
Yes
42%
2.27
No
58%
1.56
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
39%
2.01
2-3 Goals
37%
1.84
4-5 Goals
17%
6.55
6+ Goals
7%
34.5
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
14%
3.23
1/2
8%
34.5
1/X
12%
14.9
X/1
16%
4.36
X/2
12%
6.68
X/X
13%
3.28
2/1
6%
34.5
2/2
12%
5.89
2/X
7%
15.5
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
37%
Home Win
43%
-6.2pp
32%
Draw
32%
+0.7pp
31%
Away Win
25%
+5.6pp
64%
Under 2.5
66%
-1.3pp
36%
Over 2.5
34%
+1.3pp
42%
BTTS Yes
40%
+2.3pp
58%
BTTS No
60%
-2.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME CA Sarmiento EU Bookmakers 47%
Head to Head
AWAY Gimnasia La Plata EU Bookmakers 29%
-9% / -9% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -2% / -12%
1.07/1.25 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.89/1.29
-15% / -30% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -8% / -7%
50% Ball Possession 50%
12 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
269 · 72% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 252 · 71%
18.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.0
16.9 Crosses 18.6
2.4 Yellow Cards 2.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME CA Sarmiento
2W-3D-1L
AWAY Gimnasia La Plata
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 0.33
0.88 xG 0.97
45% Ball Possession 55%
10 Total Shots 17
3 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 7
207 Passes 292
66% Pass Accuracy 75%
16 Box Touches 23
18 Crosses 24
4 Yellow Cards 2
27.05.2023 Gimnasia La Plata Gimnasia La Plata 0-0 HT 0-0 CA Sarmiento CA Sarmiento ARJ
28.08.2022 CA Sarmiento CA Sarmiento 0-0 HT 0-0 Gimnasia La Plata Gimnasia La Plata ARJ
15.04.2022 Gimnasia La Plata Gimnasia La Plata 1-3 HT 0-2 CA Sarmiento CA Sarmiento ARJ
03.10.2021 Gimnasia La Plata Gimnasia La Plata 0-1 HT 0-1 CA Sarmiento CA Sarmiento ARJ
03.05.2021 CA Sarmiento CA Sarmiento 0-0 HT 0-0 Gimnasia La Plata Gimnasia La Plata ARJ
26.03.2017 Gimnasia La Plata Gimnasia La Plata 1-0 HT 1-0 CA Sarmiento CA Sarmiento ARJ
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME CA Sarmiento
1-1
AWAY Gimnasia La Plata
0.47 xG 0.55
47% Ball Possession 53%
5 Total Shots 15
2 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
226 Passes 296
67% Pass Accuracy 75%
10 Box Touches 14
22 Crosses 15
4 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH CA Sarmiento vs Gimnasia La Plata
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

CA Sarmiento and Gimnasia La Plata shared the points in a 1-1 draw.

We called this one close before kick-off — 37% / 32% / 31% — and a draw is about as on-script as that read gets. On goals, under 2.5 goals (64%) landed while no to both teams scoring (58%) missed.

On the day, CA Sarmiento had 47% of the ball to Gimnasia La Plata's 53%, shots finished 5-15, expected goals 0.47 to 0.55.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, CA Sarmiento had the better of it with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for CA Sarmiento and 0.33 for Gimnasia La Plata.

What was the final score of CA Sarmiento vs Gimnasia La Plata?

CA Sarmiento 1-1 Gimnasia La Plata in the Argentina - Premier League on 18/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for CA Sarmiento vs Gimnasia La Plata?

Before kick-off our model rated a CA Sarmiento win the most likely single outcome at about 37%, with the full match-result split CA Sarmiento 37%, draw 32%, Gimnasia La Plata 31%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (CA Sarmiento), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (CA Sarmiento) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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