Paderborn 4-3 Arminia Bielefeld — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - 2. Bundesliga, 18 Oct 2025

📅18/10/2025 · 🕒14:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 3-1 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
56%
1.72
Draw
23%
3.64
Away
21%
4.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
48%
2.21
Over 2.5
52%
1.6
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.61
No
51%
2.16
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
28%
2-3 Goals
35%
4-5 Goals
26%
6+ Goals
11%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
25%
1/2
4%
1/X
6%
X/1
24%
X/2
7%
X/X
13%
2/1
8%
2/2
9%
2/X
4%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
56%
Home Win
54%
+1.9pp
23%
Draw
24%
-1.5pp
21%
Away Win
21%
-0.4pp
48%
Under 2.5
41%
+6.5pp
52%
Over 2.5
59%
-6.5pp
49%
BTTS Yes
58%
-8.4pp
51%
BTTS No
42%
+8.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Paderborn EU Bookmakers 58%
Head to Head
AWAY Arminia Bielefeld EU Bookmakers 24%
-4% / -12% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -2% / -15%
1.93/1.33 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.43/1.99
+10% / -9% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +5% / -18%
55% Ball Possession 45%
16 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
379 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 276 · 73%
27.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 22.0
21.3 Crosses 18.3
1.7 Yellow Cards 1.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Paderborn
0W-3D-3L
AWAY Arminia Bielefeld
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.83
1.27 xG 2.15
55% Ball Possession 45%
12 Total Shots 16
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 4
385 Passes 283
80% Pass Accuracy 74%
20 Box Touches 28
17 Crosses 21
2 Yellow Cards 4
20.05.2023 Arminia Bielefeld Arminia Bielefeld 2-2 HT 2-1 Paderborn Paderborn AL2
08.11.2022 Paderborn Paderborn 0-2 HT 0-2 Arminia Bielefeld Arminia Bielefeld AL2
03.05.2019 Arminia Bielefeld Arminia Bielefeld 2-0 HT 1-0 Paderborn Paderborn AL2
30.11.2018 Paderborn Paderborn 2-2 HT 0-0 Arminia Bielefeld Arminia Bielefeld AL2
21.02.2016 Arminia Bielefeld Arminia Bielefeld 1-1 HT 0-1 Paderborn Paderborn AL2
29.08.2015 Paderborn Paderborn 1-2 HT 1-0 Arminia Bielefeld Arminia Bielefeld AL2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Paderborn
4-3
AWAY Arminia Bielefeld
3.60 xG 2.95
50% Ball Possession 50%
20 Total Shots 17
9 Shots on Target 4
8 Corners 5
299 Passes 281
76% Pass Accuracy 73%
43 Box Touches 39
16 Crosses 16
5 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Paderborn vs Arminia Bielefeld
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Paderborn edged past Arminia Bielefeld 4-3. It was 1-2 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half. 7 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Paderborn as the likeliest winner at 56%, and the 4-3 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 52% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

On the day, Paderborn had 50% of the ball to Arminia Bielefeld's 50%, shots finished 20-17, expected goals 3.60 to 2.95.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Arminia Bielefeld led the recent series with 3 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Paderborn and 1.83 for Arminia Bielefeld.

What was the final score of Paderborn vs Arminia Bielefeld?

Paderborn 4-3 Arminia Bielefeld in the Germany - 2. Bundesliga on 18/10/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Paderborn vs Arminia Bielefeld?

Before kick-off our model rated a Paderborn win the most likely single outcome at about 56%, with the full match-result split Paderborn 56%, draw 23%, Arminia Bielefeld 21%. The final score 4-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Paderborn), Over 2.5 — while BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Paderborn) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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