Saint-Etienne 2-3 Le Mans FC — Result, Statistics & Match Review — France - Ligue 2, 18 Oct 2025

Saint-Etienne
2-3 HT 1-1
Le Mans FC
📅18/10/2025 · 🕒21:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 ✗ 2nd Score 3-1 ✗
France - Ligue 2 – 2025/2026

Saint-Etienne vs Le Mans FC Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
51%
1.61
Draw
24%
3.8
Away
25%
4.47
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
2.15
Over 2.5
50%
1.64
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.7
No
48%
2.03
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
28%
4.0
2-3 Goals
39%
1.84
4-5 Goals
23%
2.98
6+ Goals
10%
9.25
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
23%
2.03
1/2
6%
35.0
1/X
8%
14.7
X/1
18%
4.21
X/2
8%
10.4
X/X
10%
5.91
2/1 EV+ ✗
10%
21.05
2/2
11%
8.02
2/X
6%
16.35
Value flag · 2/1 at 21.05 — our 10% vs market 2.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
◎
Our call
BTTS Yes — 52% ✓
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our call is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH BTTS Yes — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
51%
Home Win
58%
-7.2pp
24%
Draw
23%
+1.1pp
25%
Away Win
19%
+6.0pp
50%
Under 2.5
43%
+7.2pp
50%
Over 2.5
57%
-7.2pp
52%
BTTS Yes
55%
-2.3pp
48%
BTTS No
45%
+2.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Saint-Etienne v Le Mans FC — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Saint-Etienne EU Bookmakers 62%
Head to Head
AWAY Le Mans FC EU Bookmakers 22%
-6% / -8% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -5% / -9%
1.60/0.86 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.97/1.72
-6% / +3% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +41% / -27%
56% Ball Possession 44%
15 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 4
390 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 276 · 74%
24.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 13.7
19.0 Crosses 18.1
2.2 Yellow Cards 2.0

Saint-Etienne vs Le Mans FC Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Saint-Etienne
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Le Mans FC
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
16 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 4
The Meetings
03.04.2010 Saint-Etienne Saint-Etienne 2-0 HT 0-0 Le Mans FC Le Mans FC FR1
29.11.2009 Le Mans FC Le Mans FC 1-1 HT 0-1 Saint-Etienne Saint-Etienne FR1
17.01.2009 Saint-Etienne Saint-Etienne 1-1 HT 0-0 Le Mans FC Le Mans FC FR1
23.08.2008 Le Mans FC Le Mans FC 1-0 HT 1-0 Saint-Etienne Saint-Etienne FR1
05.04.2008 Saint-Etienne Saint-Etienne 4-1 HT 1-1 Le Mans FC Le Mans FC FR1
10.11.2007 Le Mans FC Le Mans FC 3-2 HT 2-2 Saint-Etienne Saint-Etienne FR1

Saint-Etienne 2-3 Le Mans FC — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Saint-Etienne
2-3
AWAY Le Mans FC
1.54 xG 2.54
72% Ball Possession 28%
11 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 7
4 Corners 3
539 Passes 162
88% Pass Accuracy 71%
20 Box Touches 21
9 Crosses 7
3 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Saint-Etienne vs Le Mans FC
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Le Mans FC edged past Saint-Etienne 3-2 away from home. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match lean was Saint-Etienne at 51%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.

On the day, Saint-Etienne had 72% of the ball to Le Mans FC's 28%, shots finished 11-14, expected goals 1.54 to 2.54.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Saint-Etienne and 1.17 for Le Mans FC.

What was the final score of Saint-Etienne vs Le Mans FC?

Saint-Etienne 2-3 Le Mans FC in the France - Ligue 2 on 18/10/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Saint-Etienne vs Le Mans FC?

Before kick-off our model rated a Saint-Etienne win the most likely single outcome at about 51%, with the full match-result split Saint-Etienne 51%, draw 24%, Le Mans FC 25%. The final score 2-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Saint-Etienne) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Saint-Etienne) ✓ BTTS Yes
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