Arsenal (K) 3-2 Bayern München (K) — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Champions League - Women's, 18 Dec 2024

Arsenal (K)
3-2 HT 1-1
Bayern München (K)
📅18/12/2024 · 🕒23:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 2-0 ✗
Champions League - Women's – 2024/2025

Arsenal (K) vs Bayern München (K) Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
52%
1.72
Draw
22%
3.72
Away
26%
4.04
Under/Over 2.5
Under
51%
2.1
Over
49%
1.67
Both Teams to Score
Yes
44%
1.66
No Pick
56%
2.09
Total Goals
0-1
29%
2-3
38%
4-5
26%
6+
7%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
28%
1/2
3%
1/X
5%
X/1
17%
X/2
8%
X/X
12%
2/1
7%
2/2
14%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
◎
Our Pick
BTTS No — 56% ✗
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Home Win — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
52%
Home Win
54%
-2.2pp
22%
Draw
24%
-1.6pp
26%
Away Win
22%
+3.7pp
51%
Under 2.5
44%
+7.0pp
49%
Over 2.5
56%
-7.0pp
44%
BTTS Yes
56%
-12.3pp
56%
BTTS No
44%
+12.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Arsenal (K) v Bayern München (K) — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Arsenal (K) EU Bookmakers 58%
Head to Head
AWAY Bayern München (K) EU Bookmakers 25%
+0% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -19% / -19%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
– / – Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -17% / -37%
56% Ball Possession 44%
16 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
371 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 279 · 74%
– Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.3
– Crosses 21.8
– Yellow Cards 2.4

Arsenal (K) vs Bayern München (K) Head-to-Head — Last 4 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Arsenal (K)
1W-0D-3L
AWAY Bayern München (K)
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.75
2.14 xG 1.12
48% Ball Possession 52%
14 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
374 Passes 394
83% Pass Accuracy 83%
31 Box Touches 17
16 Crosses 15
2 Yellow Cards 1
The Meetings
09.10.2024 Bayern München (K) Bayern München (K) 5-2 HT 1-1 Arsenal (K) Arsenal (K) ŞMP-K
29.03.2023 Arsenal (K) Arsenal (K) 2-0 HT 2-0 Bayern München (K) Bayern München (K) ŞMP-K
21.03.2023 Bayern München (K) Bayern München (K) 1-0 HT 1-0 Arsenal (K) Arsenal (K) ŞMP-K
28.07.2019 Arsenal (K) Arsenal (K) 0-1 HT 0-1 Bayern München (K) Bayern München (K) HAZ

Arsenal (K) 3-2 Bayern München (K) — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Arsenal (K)
3-2
AWAY Bayern München (K)
1.76 xG 1.65
48% Ball Possession 52%
7 Total Shots 8
2 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 6
332 Passes 356
81% Pass Accuracy 82%
25 Box Touches 22
14 Crosses 20
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Arsenal (K) vs Bayern München (K)
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Arsenal (K) squeezed past Bayern München (K) 3-2. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we said in the preview, our model had Arsenal (K) as the likeliest winner at 52%, and the 3-2 landed on that lead. The goals read — no to both teams scoring (56%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Arsenal (K) had 48% of the ball to Bayern München (K)'s 52%, shots finished 7-8, expected goals 1.76 to 1.65.

For context: across their last 4 meetings in our records, Bayern München (K) led the recent series with 3 wins. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Arsenal (K) and 1.75 for Bayern München (K).

What was the final score of Arsenal (K) vs Bayern München (K)?

Arsenal (K) 3-2 Bayern München (K) in the Champions League - Women's on 18/12/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Arsenal (K) vs Bayern München (K)?

Before kick-off our model rated a Arsenal (K) win the most likely single outcome at about 52%, with the full match-result split Arsenal (K) 52%, draw 22%, Bayern München (K) 26%. The final score 3-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Arsenal (K)) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Arsenal (K)) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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