Inter 3-0 Lazio — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Super Cup, 19 Jan 2024

Inter
3-0 HT 1-0
Lazio
📅19/01/2024 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
45%
1.64
Draw
28%
3.54
Away
27%
4.85
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
48%
1.68
Over 2.5
52%
2.07
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
2.09
No
46%
1.66
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
27%
2.73
2-3 Goals
37%
1.77
4-5 Goals EV+ ✗
25%
4.34
6+ Goals
11%
21.75
Value flag · 4-5 Goals at 4.34 — our 25% vs market 18.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
2.11
1/2
5%
34.0
1/X
9%
16.2
X/1
14%
3.64
X/2
10%
10.35
X/X
13%
4.48
2/1 EV+ ✗
13%
27.0
2/2
11%
9.04
2/X
7%
17.3
Value flag · 2/1 at 27.0 — our 13% vs market 1.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
45%
Home Win
57%
-12.5pp
29%
Draw
25%
+3.4pp
27%
Away Win
18%
+9.1pp
48%
Under 2.5
56%
-7.6pp
52%
Over 2.5
44%
+7.5pp
54%
BTTS Yes
44%
+10.2pp
46%
BTTS No
56%
-10.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Inter EU Bookmakers 61%
Head to Head
AWAY Lazio EU Bookmakers 21%
+14% / +14% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +19% / +19%
2.01/1.02 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.99/2.01
+59% / +7% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +149% / -19%
59% Ball Possession 41%
14 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 3
459 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 259 · 75%
49.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 15.0
39.0 Crosses 21.0
3.0 Yellow Cards 4.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Inter
4W-0D-2L
AWAY Lazio
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
1.98 xG 1.38
51% Ball Possession 49%
16 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 4
465 Passes 440
86% Pass Accuracy 86%
27 Box Touches 18
18 Crosses 19
2 Yellow Cards 2
17.12.2023 Lazio Lazio 0-2 HT 0-1 Inter Inter İTA
30.04.2023 Inter Inter 3-1 HT 0-1 Lazio Lazio İTA
26.08.2022 Lazio Lazio 3-1 HT 1-0 Inter Inter İTA
09.01.2022 Inter Inter 2-1 HT 1-1 Lazio Lazio İTA
16.10.2021 Lazio Lazio 3-1 HT 0-1 Inter Inter İTA
14.02.2021 Inter Inter 3-1 HT 2-0 Lazio Lazio İTA
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Inter
3-0
AWAY Lazio
3.81 xG 0.33
61% Ball Possession 39%
23 Total Shots 5
7 Shots on Target 0
7 Corners 0
574 Passes 344
91% Pass Accuracy 86%
39 Box Touches 12
20 Crosses 9
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Inter vs Lazio
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Inter cruised past Lazio 3-0. Half-time: 1-0.

As we said in the preview, our model had Inter as the likeliest winner at 45%, and the 3-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 52% and both teams to score was close to even at 54%.

On the day, Inter had 61% of the ball to Lazio's 39%, shots finished 23-5, expected goals 3.81 to 0.33.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Inter had the better of it with 4 wins. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Inter and 1.50 for Lazio.

What was the final score of Inter vs Lazio?

Inter 3-0 Lazio in the Italy - Super Cup on 19/01/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Inter vs Lazio?

Before kick-off our model rated a Inter win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split Inter 45%, draw 29%, Lazio 27%. The final score 3-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Inter), Over 2.5 — while BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Inter) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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