Erzgebirge Aue 2-1 Rot-Weiss Essen — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - 3rd Division, 19 Jan 2024

Erzgebirge Aue
2-1 HT 0-1
Rot-Weiss Essen
📅19/01/2024 · 🕒21:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 0-1 ✗
Germany - 3rd Division – 2023/2024

Erzgebirge Aue vs Rot-Weiss Essen Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
43%
2.25
Draw
23%
3.35
Away
34%
2.72
Under/Over 2.5
Under
51%
2.0
Over
49%
1.74
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.66
No Pick
53%
2.09
Total Goals
0-1 ✗
27%
3.5
2-3
41%
1.78
4-5
21%
3.32
6+
11%
12.25
Value flag · 0-1 at 3.5 — our 27% vs market 22.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
3.24
1/2
6%
30.0
1/X
6%
13.05
X/1
17%
5.07
X/2
11%
6.0
X/X
9%
4.82
2/1
6%
26.0
2/2
17%
4.1
2/X
8%
13.2
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
◎
Our Pick
BTTS No — 53% ✗
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
43%
Home Win
41%
+2.5pp
23%
Draw
26%
-3.3pp
34%
Away Win
33%
+0.7pp
51%
Under 2.5
46%
+4.2pp
49%
Over 2.5
54%
-4.2pp
47%
BTTS Yes
56%
-8.9pp
53%
BTTS No
44%
+8.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Erzgebirge Aue v Rot-Weiss Essen — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Erzgebirge Aue EU Bookmakers 44%
Head to Head
AWAY Rot-Weiss Essen EU Bookmakers 37%
-12% / -18% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +3% / +3%
1.18/1.53 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.12/1.20
-21% / -19% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -21% / +10%
50% Ball Possession 50%
12 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 6
261 · 67% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 308 · 70%
– Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area –
– Crosses –
2.2 Yellow Cards 1.3

Erzgebirge Aue vs Rot-Weiss Essen Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Erzgebirge Aue
2W-3D-1L
AWAY Rot-Weiss Essen
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
49% Ball Possession 51%
11 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 7
5 Corners 4
1 Yellow Cards 3
The Meetings
20.08.2023 Rot-Weiss Essen Rot-Weiss Essen 1-1 HT 1-1 Erzgebirge Aue Erzgebirge Aue AL3
11.03.2023 Erzgebirge Aue Erzgebirge Aue 2-1 HT 2-0 Rot-Weiss Essen Rot-Weiss Essen AL3
02.09.2022 Rot-Weiss Essen Rot-Weiss Essen 2-1 HT 1-0 Erzgebirge Aue Erzgebirge Aue AL3
20.04.2007 Erzgebirge Aue Erzgebirge Aue 0-0 HT 0-0 Rot-Weiss Essen Rot-Weiss Essen AL2
19.11.2006 Rot-Weiss Essen Rot-Weiss Essen 0-1 HT 0-0 Erzgebirge Aue Erzgebirge Aue AL2
22.01.2005 Erzgebirge Aue Erzgebirge Aue 1-1 HT 0-0 Rot-Weiss Essen Rot-Weiss Essen AL2

Erzgebirge Aue 2-1 Rot-Weiss Essen — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Erzgebirge Aue
2-1
AWAY Rot-Weiss Essen
55% Ball Possession 45%
16 Total Shots 10
7 Shots on Target 6
8 Corners 3
4 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Erzgebirge Aue vs Rot-Weiss Essen
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Erzgebirge Aue nicked a narrow win over Rot-Weiss Essen 2-1. It was 0-1 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Erzgebirge Aue as the likeliest winner at 43%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 47%.

On the day, Erzgebirge Aue had 55% of the ball to Rot-Weiss Essen's 45%, shots finished 16-10.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Erzgebirge Aue had the better of it with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Erzgebirge Aue and 0.83 for Rot-Weiss Essen.

What was the final score of Erzgebirge Aue vs Rot-Weiss Essen?

Erzgebirge Aue 2-1 Rot-Weiss Essen in the Germany - 3rd Division on 19/01/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Erzgebirge Aue vs Rot-Weiss Essen?

Before kick-off our model rated a Erzgebirge Aue win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Erzgebirge Aue 43%, draw 23%, Rot-Weiss Essen 34%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Erzgebirge Aue) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Erzgebirge Aue) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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