Botafogo PB 5-1 Sao Paulo Crystal — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Paraibano, 19 Jan 2024

📅19/01/2024 · 🕒02:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home Pick
58%
1.33
Draw
24%
4.62
Away
18%
7.18
Under/Over 2.5
Under
53%
Over
47%
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
No
55%
Total Goals
0-1
27%
2-3
45%
4-5
21%
6+
7%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
34%
1/2
3%
1/X
7%
X/1
15%
X/2
11%
X/X
14%
2/1
9%
2/2
3%
2/X
4%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
Botafogo PB win — 58%
Fair price · no betting value
Every market fairly priced — no value edge at these odds. Our Pick = the most likely outcome, not a value bet.
STRENGTH Home Win — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Selection The Market
58%
Home Win
71%
-12.4pp
24%
Draw
18%
+5.7pp
18%
Away Win
11%
+6.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — the market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Botafogo PB The Market 75%
Head to Head
AWAY Sao Paulo Crystal The Market 14%
-6% / -6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +10% / +10%
2.18/0.36 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.79/1.63
-2% / +124% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +34% / +21%
53% Ball Possession 47%
16 Total Shots 8
6 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 3
416 · 85% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 360 · 81%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.9 Yellow Cards 2.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Botafogo PB
2W-2D-0L
AWAY Sao Paulo Crystal
1.75 Avg Goals (FT) 0.75
57% Ball Possession 43%
12 Total Shots 8
5 Shots on Target 2
4 Corners 4
2 Yellow Cards 4
25.02.2023 Botafogo PB Botafogo PB 1-1 HT 0-1 Sao Paulo Crystal BRPA
01.04.2022 Sao Paulo Crystal 0-3 HT 0-1 Botafogo PB Botafogo PB BRPA
10.02.2022 Botafogo PB Botafogo PB 1-1 HT 0-1 Sao Paulo Crystal BRPA
06.05.2021 Botafogo PB Botafogo PB 2-1 HT 1-0 Sao Paulo Crystal BRPA
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Botafogo PB
5-1
AWAY Sao Paulo Crystal
55% Ball Possession 45%
20 Total Shots 3
9 Shots on Target 1
9 Corners 0
POST-MATCH Botafogo PB vs Sao Paulo Crystal
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Botafogo PB cruised past Sao Paulo Crystal 5-1. Half-time: 2-1. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Botafogo PB as the likeliest winner at 58%, and the 5-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — no to both teams scoring (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Botafogo PB had 55% of the ball to Sao Paulo Crystal's 45%, shots finished 20-3.

For context: across their last 4 meetings in our records, Botafogo PB had the better of it with 2 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.75 goals for Botafogo PB and 0.75 for Sao Paulo Crystal.

What was the final score of Botafogo PB vs Sao Paulo Crystal?

Botafogo PB 5-1 Sao Paulo Crystal in the Brazil - Paraibano on 19/01/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Botafogo PB vs Sao Paulo Crystal?

Before kick-off our model rated a Botafogo PB win the most likely single outcome at about 58%, with the full match-result split Botafogo PB 58%, draw 24%, Sao Paulo Crystal 18%. The final score 5-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Botafogo PB) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Botafogo PB) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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