Excelsior 3-0 Heerenveen — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Netherlands - Eredivisie, 19 Jan 2024

📅19/01/2024 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 2nd Score 1-3
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Authentic Intelligence™ · Probability per market
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
32%
2.8
Draw
26%
3.45
Away
42%
2.16
Under/Over 2.5
Under
43%
2.1
Over
57%
1.71
Both Teams to Score
Yes Pick
58%
1.59
No
42%
2.19
Total Goals
0-1
21%
3.87
2-3
45%
1.82
4-5
26%
3.15
6+
8%
10.55
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
4.29
1/2
3%
23.85
1/X
6%
12.9
X/1
11%
6.48
X/2
15%
5.01
X/X
15%
5.09
2/1
2%
30.0
2/2
24%
2.99
2/X
5%
12.7
Value flag · 1/2 at 23.85 — our 3% vs market 2.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
STRENGTH — pattern support: Good → Great · fuller bar = deeper record. Informational.
EV — the best model-vs-price gap in that group: the market pays more than our probability implies. After full time the tag settles to / . Informational, not a validated tip — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Our Pick = the most likely outcome.
SIGNALS Team Signals — the why behind the numbers
iddaakolik predictions — not real match figures
HOME Excelsior The Market 36%
Head to Head
AWAY Heerenveen The Market 46%
Strong Team Performanceagainst Market Expectation Average
1.46 xG Scorediddaakolik model prediction 1.63
1.27 xG Concedediddaakolik model prediction 1.44
Strong Attack Strength Average
Strong Defense Strength Weak
44% Ball Possession 56%
13 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 6
268 · 72% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 391 · 78%
21 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 24
20 Crosses 18
1 Yellow Cards 1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Excelsior
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Heerenveen
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
1.02 xG 1.16
42% Ball Possession 58%
12 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 6
274 Passes 416
74% Pass Accuracy 81%
19 Box Touches 24
14 Crosses 24
1 Yellow Cards 2
23.09.2023 Heerenveen Heerenveen 0-3 HT 0-2 Excelsior Excelsior HOL
13.05.2023 Heerenveen Heerenveen 0-0 HT 0-0 Excelsior Excelsior HOL
05.11.2022 Excelsior Excelsior 0-1 HT 0-0 Heerenveen Heerenveen HOL
30.03.2019 Heerenveen Heerenveen 1-0 HT 0-0 Excelsior Excelsior HOL
22.09.2018 Excelsior Excelsior 3-3 HT 2-0 Heerenveen Heerenveen HOL
24.02.2018 Heerenveen Heerenveen 0-1 HT 0-1 Excelsior Excelsior HOL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Excelsior
3 - 0
AWAY Heerenveen
2.89 xG 0.41
41% Ball Possession 59%
14 Total Shots 9
7 Shots on Target 1
6 Corners 5
315 Passes 475
81% Pass Accuracy 84%
33 Box Touches 12
21 Crosses 19
2 Yellow Cards 1
REVIEW Excelsior vs Heerenveen
IDDAAKOLIK POST-MATCH REVIEW

Excelsior made light work of Heerenveen 3-0. Half-time: 2-0.

We leaned Heerenveen at 42% — softly — and the game went the other way. Slim leads do that. The goals card split: over 2.5 goals (57%) came in, both teams to score (58%) didn't.

The match data tells the story: Excelsior had 41% of the ball to Heerenveen's 59%, shots finished 14-9, expected goals 2.89 to 0.41.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Excelsior and 0.83 for Heerenveen.

Excelsior vs Heerenveen Result & Final Score

Excelsior 3 - 0 Heerenveen in the Netherlands - Eredivisie on 19/01/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

Excelsior vs Heerenveen Prediction vs Result

Before kick-off our model rated an Heerenveen win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Excelsior 32%, draw 26%, Heerenveen 42%. The final score 3-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5 — while Match Result (Heerenveen), BTTS Yes went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Heerenveen) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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