Athletic Bilbao 3-2 Girona — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Spain - Primera Liga, 19 Feb 2024

Athletic Bilbao
3-2 HT 1-0
Girona
📅19/02/2024 · 🕒23:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 ✗ 2nd Score 2-1 ✗
Spain - Primera Liga – 2023/2024

Athletic Bilbao vs Girona Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
48%
1.82
Draw
26%
3.45
Away
26%
3.71
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
46%
1.9
Over 2.5
54%
1.82
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.76
No
50%
1.95
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
26%
3.34
2-3 Goals
38%
1.79
4-5 Goals EV+ ✓
24%
3.53
6+ Goals
12%
13.9
Value flag · 4-5 Goals at 3.53 — our 24% vs market 22.9%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
2.45
1/2
7%
34.5
1/X
8%
14.0
X/1
20%
4.2
X/2
6%
8.16
X/X
12%
4.85
2/1
7%
24.0
2/2
13%
6.21
2/X
6%
14.6
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
48%
Home Win
51%
-2.3pp
26%
Draw
26%
+0.0pp
26%
Away Win
24%
+2.3pp
46%
Under 2.5
49%
-2.6pp
54%
Over 2.5
51%
+2.6pp
50%
BTTS Yes
53%
-3.0pp
50%
BTTS No
47%
+3.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Athletic Bilbao v Girona — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Athletic Bilbao EU Bookmakers 55%
Head to Head
AWAY Girona EU Bookmakers 27%
+0% / -7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +6% / +4%
1.53/0.92 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.18/1.55
-2% / +2% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +36% / -4%
51% Ball Possession 49%
13 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 5
337 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 304 · 76%
22.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.0
21.8 Crosses 17.3
2.3 Yellow Cards 2.3

Athletic Bilbao vs Girona Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Athletic Bilbao
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Girona
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
1.21 xG 1.17
53% Ball Possession 46%
14 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 3
371 Passes 328
81% Pass Accuracy 78%
28 Box Touches 18
30 Crosses 15
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
27.11.2023 Girona Girona 1-1 HT 0-0 Athletic Bilbao Athletic Bilbao İS1
26.02.2023 Athletic Bilbao Athletic Bilbao 2-3 HT 1-3 Girona Girona İS1
04.11.2022 Girona Girona 2-1 HT 0-0 Athletic Bilbao Athletic Bilbao İS1
29.03.2019 Girona Girona 1-2 HT 1-0 Athletic Bilbao Athletic Bilbao İS1
10.12.2018 Athletic Bilbao Athletic Bilbao 1-0 HT 0-0 Girona Girona İS1
04.02.2018 Girona Girona 2-0 HT 1-0 Athletic Bilbao Athletic Bilbao İS1

Athletic Bilbao 3-2 Girona — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Athletic Bilbao
3-2
AWAY Girona
1.78 xG 2.10
31% Ball Possession 69%
14 Total Shots 12
7 Shots on Target 6
3 Corners 4
224 Passes 601
76% Pass Accuracy 89%
27 Box Touches 22
10 Crosses 14
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Athletic Bilbao vs Girona
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Athletic Bilbao nicked a narrow win over Girona 3-2. Half-time: 1-0. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we said in the preview, our model had Athletic Bilbao as the likeliest winner at 48%, and the 3-2 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 54% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, Athletic Bilbao had 31% of the ball to Girona's 69%, shots finished 14-12, expected goals 1.78 to 2.10.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Girona led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Athletic Bilbao and 1.50 for Girona.

What was the final score of Athletic Bilbao vs Girona?

Athletic Bilbao 3-2 Girona in the Spain - Primera Liga on 19/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Athletic Bilbao vs Girona?

Before kick-off our model rated a Athletic Bilbao win the most likely single outcome at about 48%, with the full match-result split Athletic Bilbao 48%, draw 26%, Girona 26%. The final score 3-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Athletic Bilbao), Over 2.5 — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Athletic Bilbao) ✓ Over 2.5
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