Palmeiras 2-2 Corinthians — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Paulista A1, 19 Feb 2024

📅19/02/2024 · 🕒00:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 3-0 2nd Score 4-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
57%
1.3
Draw
24%
4.95
Away
19%
7.18
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
45%
Over 2.5
55%
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
No
54%
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
23%
2-3 Goals
39%
4-5 Goals
28%
6+ Goals
10%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
39%
1/2
5%
1/X
9%
X/1
11%
X/2
9%
X/X
9%
2/1
7%
2/2
5%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
57%
Home Win
72%
-15.3pp
25%
Draw
17%
+7.6pp
19%
Away Win
11%
+7.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Palmeiras EU Bookmakers 77%
Head to Head
AWAY Corinthians EU Bookmakers 14%
+2% / +18% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +8% / +8%
2.13/0.50 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.41/0.74
+13% / +42% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -41% / +149%
60% Ball Possession 40%
16 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 3
439 · 84% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 248 · 75%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 3.0
Crosses 5.0
Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Palmeiras
4W-2D-0L
AWAY Corinthians
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
1.01 xG 0.47
48% Ball Possession 52%
17 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 3
8 Corners 5
306 Passes 335
80% Pass Accuracy 82%
19 Box Touches 12
19 Crosses 14
2 Yellow Cards 2
03.09.2023 Corinthians Corinthians 0-0 HT 0-0 Palmeiras Palmeiras BR1
30.04.2023 Palmeiras Palmeiras 2-1 HT 2-0 Corinthians Corinthians BR1
17.02.2023 Corinthians Corinthians 2-2 HT 1-1 Palmeiras Palmeiras BREPAU
14.08.2022 Corinthians Corinthians 0-1 HT 0-0 Palmeiras Palmeiras BR1
24.04.2022 Palmeiras Palmeiras 3-0 HT 2-0 Corinthians Corinthians BR1
18.03.2022 Palmeiras Palmeiras 2-1 HT 1-0 Corinthians Corinthians BREPAU
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Palmeiras
2-2
AWAY Corinthians
53% Ball Possession 47%
20 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 6
7 Corners 3
253 Passes 205
76% Pass Accuracy 69%
POST-MATCH Palmeiras vs Corinthians
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Palmeiras and Corinthians couldn't be separated, finishing 2-2. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

By our pre-match numbers this was an upset: we had Palmeiras at 57% and the game still went the other way. Single results are noisy — probabilities earn their keep across thousands of matches, not one. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (55%) came in.

On the day, Palmeiras had 53% of the ball to Corinthians's 47%, shots finished 20-13.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Palmeiras had the better of it with 4 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Palmeiras and 0.67 for Corinthians.

What was the final score of Palmeiras vs Corinthians?

Palmeiras 2-2 Corinthians in the Brazil - Paulista A1 on 19/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Palmeiras vs Corinthians?

Before kick-off our model rated a Palmeiras win the most likely single outcome at about 57%, with the full match-result split Palmeiras 57%, draw 25%, Corinthians 19%. The final score 2-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5 — while Match Result (Palmeiras), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Palmeiras) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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