Ludogorets Razgrad 3-1 Cherno More Varna — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Bulgaria - 1st Division, 19 Feb 2024

📅19/02/2024 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
47%
1.66
Draw
29%
3.54
Away
24%
4.47
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
1.68
Over 2.5
48%
2.07
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
2.03
No
51%
1.7
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
28%
2-3 Goals
39%
4-5 Goals
24%
6+ Goals
9%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
26%
1/2
6%
1/X
11%
X/1
15%
X/2
8%
X/X
10%
2/1
6%
2/2
10%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
47%
Home Win
56%
-8.9pp
29%
Draw
25%
+4.1pp
24%
Away Win
19%
+4.9pp
52%
Under 2.5
56%
-3.9pp
48%
Over 2.5
44%
+3.9pp
49%
BTTS Yes
45%
+3.6pp
51%
BTTS No
55%
-3.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Ludogorets Razgrad EU Bookmakers 60%
Head to Head
AWAY Cherno More Varna EU Bookmakers 22%
+3% / +3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +14% / +14%
2.52/0.96 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.17/1.18
+57% / -30% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +36% / -5%
55% Ball Possession 45%
13 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 5
380 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 288 · 74%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
3.0 Yellow Cards 2.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Ludogorets Razgrad
2W-0D-2L
AWAY Cherno More Varna
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
61% Ball Possession 39%
11 Total Shots 8
5 Shots on Target 2
4 Corners 3
3 Yellow Cards 4
20.08.2023 Cherno More Varna Cherno More Varna 1-0 HT 0-0 Ludogorets Razgrad Ludogorets Razgrad BUL1
07.06.2023 Cherno More Varna Cherno More Varna 0-1 HT 0-0 Ludogorets Razgrad Ludogorets Razgrad BUL1
11.05.2023 Ludogorets Razgrad Ludogorets Razgrad 1-2 HT 0-0 Cherno More Varna Cherno More Varna BULK
25.04.2023 Cherno More Varna Cherno More Varna 1-2 HT 1-2 Ludogorets Razgrad Ludogorets Razgrad BULK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Ludogorets Razgrad
3-1
AWAY Cherno More Varna
57% Ball Possession 43%
9 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 4
2 Corners 6
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Ludogorets Razgrad vs Cherno More Varna
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Ludogorets Razgrad got the better of Cherno More Varna 3-1.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Ludogorets Razgrad as the likeliest winner at 47%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

On the day, Ludogorets Razgrad had 57% of the ball to Cherno More Varna's 43%, shots finished 9-9.

For context: across their last 4 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Ludogorets Razgrad and 1.00 for Cherno More Varna.

What was the final score of Ludogorets Razgrad vs Cherno More Varna?

Ludogorets Razgrad 3-1 Cherno More Varna in the Bulgaria - 1st Division on 19/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Ludogorets Razgrad vs Cherno More Varna?

Before kick-off our model rated a Ludogorets Razgrad win the most likely single outcome at about 47%, with the full match-result split Ludogorets Razgrad 47%, draw 29%, Cherno More Varna 24%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Ludogorets Razgrad) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Ludogorets Razgrad) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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