Homburg 0-1 Elversberg — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Friendlies, 19 Feb 2024

Homburg
0-1
Elversberg
📅19/02/2024 · 🕒14:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 0-1 ✓
Friendlies – 2023/2024

Homburg vs Elversberg Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
44%
2.0
Draw
25%
3.35
Away
31%
3.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
Over 2.5
49%
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
No
55%
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
30%
2-3 Goals
34%
4-5 Goals
27%
6+ Goals
9%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
1/2
7%
1/X
5%
X/1
16%
X/2
12%
X/X
11%
2/1
8%
2/2
12%
2/X
9%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
44%
Home Win
46%
-2.0pp
25%
Draw
26%
-1.0pp
31%
Away Win
28%
+2.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Homburg v Elversberg — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Homburg EU Bookmakers 50%
Head to Head
AWAY Elversberg EU Bookmakers 32%
+38% / +38% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +0%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
-38% / – Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) – / –
47% Ball Possession 53%
14 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
310 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 285 · 75%
– Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area –
– Crosses –
– Yellow Cards –

Homburg vs Elversberg Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Homburg
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Elversberg
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
45% Ball Possession 55%
7 Total Shots 13
2 Shots on Target 7
3 Corners 5
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
14.05.2022 Elversberg Elversberg 2-0 HT 1-0 Homburg Homburg ALMBÖL
20.11.2021 Homburg Homburg 2-1 HT 1-1 Elversberg Elversberg ALMBÖL
20.03.2021 Elversberg Elversberg 1-1 HT 0-0 Homburg Homburg ALMBÖL
03.10.2020 Homburg Homburg 1-2 HT 1-1 Elversberg Elversberg ALMBÖL
07.09.2019 Elversberg Elversberg 2-3 HT 1-2 Homburg Homburg ALMBÖL
15.07.2017 Elversberg Elversberg 2-0 HT 1-0 Homburg Homburg HAZ
POST-MATCH Homburg vs Elversberg
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Elversberg nicked a narrow win over Homburg 1-0 away from home.

Our pre-match lean was Homburg at 44%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals side of the card held up too — no to both teams scoring (55%) came in.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Elversberg led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Homburg and 1.67 for Elversberg.

What was the final score of Homburg vs Elversberg?

Homburg 0-1 Elversberg in the Friendlies on 19/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Homburg vs Elversberg?

Before kick-off our model rated a Homburg win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Homburg 44%, draw 25%, Elversberg 31%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (Homburg) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Homburg) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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