MVV Maastricht 3-3 PSV II — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Netherlands - Eerste Divisie, 19 Feb 2024

MVV Maastricht
3-3 HT 1-2
PSV II
📅19/02/2024 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 ✗ 2nd Score 2-1 ✗
Netherlands - Eerste Divisie – 2023/2024

MVV Maastricht vs PSV II Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
40%
2.18
Draw
26%
3.72
Away
34%
2.62
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
42%
2.98
Over 2.5
58%
1.36
Both Teams to Score
Yes
56%
1.32
No
44%
3.06
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
21%
7.56
2-3 Goals
38%
2.26
4-5 Goals
27%
2.42
6+ Goals
14%
4.47
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
2.95
1/2
5%
23.6
1/X
6%
12.1
X/1
15%
5.79
X/2
8%
6.78
X/X
14%
6.52
2/1 EV+ ✗
9%
20.8
2/2
21%
3.66
2/X
6%
12.15
Value flag · 2/1 at 20.8 — our 9% vs market 2.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
40%
Home Win
42%
-1.7pp
26%
Draw
24%
+2.4pp
34%
Away Win
34%
-0.7pp
42%
Under 2.5
30%
+12.2pp
58%
Over 2.5
70%
-12.2pp
56%
BTTS Yes
72%
-15.1pp
44%
BTTS No
28%
+15.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

MVV Maastricht v PSV II — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME MVV Maastricht EU Bookmakers 46%
Head to Head
AWAY PSV II EU Bookmakers 38%
+4% / +34% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -1% / -8%
1.87/1.23 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.13/0.99
+41% / +21% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -18% / +9%
50% Ball Possession 50%
13 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 4
329 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 348 · 79%
21.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.8
14.3 Crosses 14.1
2.2 Yellow Cards 1.6

MVV Maastricht vs PSV II Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME MVV Maastricht
2W-2D-2L
AWAY PSV II
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
1.13 xG 1.23
44% Ball Possession 56%
12 Total Shots 16
4 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 6
291 Passes 420
75% Pass Accuracy 82%
21 Box Touches 26
13 Crosses 18
1 Yellow Cards 1
The Meetings
06.10.2023 PSV II PSV II 2-3 HT 1-0 MVV Maastricht MVV Maastricht HOL2
24.04.2023 PSV II PSV II 0-1 HT 0-0 MVV Maastricht MVV Maastricht HOL2
14.10.2022 MVV Maastricht MVV Maastricht 1-1 HT 1-0 PSV II PSV II HOL2
25.04.2022 PSV II PSV II 2-2 HT 2-0 MVV Maastricht MVV Maastricht HOL2
26.11.2021 MVV Maastricht MVV Maastricht 1-2 HT 1-0 PSV II PSV II HOL2
05.04.2021 PSV II PSV II 3-1 HT 1-0 MVV Maastricht MVV Maastricht HOL2

MVV Maastricht 3-3 PSV II — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME MVV Maastricht
3-3
AWAY PSV II
1.43 xG 2.22
37% Ball Possession 63%
10 Total Shots 23
6 Shots on Target 11
3 Corners 10
331 Passes 602
82% Pass Accuracy 88%
24 Box Touches 52
9 Crosses 29
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH MVV Maastricht vs PSV II
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

MVV Maastricht and PSV II couldn't be separated, finishing 3-3. Half-time: 1-2. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match split (40% / 26% / 34%) said coin-flip, and the draw proved it right. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (58%), both teams to score (56%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, MVV Maastricht had 37% of the ball to PSV II's 63%, shots finished 10-23, expected goals 1.43 to 2.22.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for MVV Maastricht and 1.67 for PSV II.

What was the final score of MVV Maastricht vs PSV II?

MVV Maastricht 3-3 PSV II in the Netherlands - Eerste Divisie on 19/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for MVV Maastricht vs PSV II?

Before kick-off our model rated a MVV Maastricht win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split MVV Maastricht 40%, draw 26%, PSV II 34%. The final score 3-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (MVV Maastricht) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (MVV Maastricht) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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