Gornik Zabrze 3-1 Korona Kielce — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Poland - Ekstraklasa, 19 Feb 2024

Gornik Zabrze
3-1 HT 2-0
Korona Kielce
📅19/02/2024 · 🕒21:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 0-1 ✗
Poland - Ekstraklasa – 2023/2024

Gornik Zabrze vs Korona Kielce Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
42%
2.02
Draw
28%
3.28
Away
30%
3.25
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
61%
1.82
Over 2.5
39%
1.9
Both Teams to Score
Yes
44%
1.75
No
56%
1.96
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
34%
3.22
2-3 Goals
39%
1.78
4-5 Goals
19%
3.64
6+ Goals
8%
14.9
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.22 — our 34% vs market 25.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
2.8
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
11%
13.2
X/1
16%
4.52
X/2
12%
7.22
X/X
11%
4.44
2/1
9%
26.0
2/2
11%
5.41
2/X
7%
13.7
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
42%
Home Win
46%
-4.0pp
29%
Draw
27%
+1.4pp
30%
Away Win
27%
+2.6pp
61%
Under 2.5
51%
+9.7pp
39%
Over 2.5
49%
-9.7pp
44%
BTTS Yes
53%
-8.8pp
56%
BTTS No
47%
+8.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Gornik Zabrze v Korona Kielce — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Gornik Zabrze EU Bookmakers 50%
Head to Head
AWAY Korona Kielce EU Bookmakers 31%
+4% / +6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -1% / -2%
1.64/0.97 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.01/0.88
+17% / +17% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -5% / +1%
53% Ball Possession 47%
13 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
349 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 260 · 71%
27.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.0
18.6 Crosses 20.2
2.4 Yellow Cards 2.0

Gornik Zabrze vs Korona Kielce Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Gornik Zabrze
4W-2D-0L
AWAY Korona Kielce
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
1.18 xG 0.80
54% Ball Possession 46%
14 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 5
342 Passes 297
79% Pass Accuracy 72%
26 Box Touches 20
17 Crosses 21
3 Yellow Cards 3
The Meetings
12.08.2023 Korona Kielce Korona Kielce 0-1 HT 0-0 Gornik Zabrze Gornik Zabrze POL
06.04.2023 Gornik Zabrze Gornik Zabrze 1-1 HT 0-1 Korona Kielce Korona Kielce POL
18.09.2022 Korona Kielce Korona Kielce 1-2 HT 1-1 Gornik Zabrze Gornik Zabrze POL
19.06.2020 Gornik Zabrze Gornik Zabrze 3-2 HT 1-0 Korona Kielce Korona Kielce POL
08.02.2020 Korona Kielce Korona Kielce 0-0 HT 0-0 Gornik Zabrze Gornik Zabrze POL
25.08.2019 Gornik Zabrze Gornik Zabrze 3-0 HT 2-0 Korona Kielce Korona Kielce POL

Gornik Zabrze 3-1 Korona Kielce — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Gornik Zabrze
3-1
AWAY Korona Kielce
2.24 xG 0.78
50% Ball Possession 50%
12 Total Shots 15
6 Shots on Target 4
1 Corners 7
347 Passes 348
79% Pass Accuracy 80%
12 Box Touches 20
12 Crosses 21
2 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Gornik Zabrze vs Korona Kielce
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Gornik Zabrze saw off Korona Kielce 3-1. Half-time: 2-0.

As we said in the preview, our model had Gornik Zabrze as the likeliest winner at 42%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (61%), no to both teams scoring (56%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Gornik Zabrze had 50% of the ball to Korona Kielce's 50%, shots finished 12-15, expected goals 2.24 to 0.78.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Gornik Zabrze had the better of it with 4 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Gornik Zabrze and 0.67 for Korona Kielce.

What was the final score of Gornik Zabrze vs Korona Kielce?

Gornik Zabrze 3-1 Korona Kielce in the Poland - Ekstraklasa on 19/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Gornik Zabrze vs Korona Kielce?

Before kick-off our model rated a Gornik Zabrze win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Gornik Zabrze 42%, draw 29%, Korona Kielce 30%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Gornik Zabrze) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Gornik Zabrze) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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