Başakşehir FK 2-3 Kayserispor — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Turkey - Super League, 19 Feb 2024

Başakşehir FK
2-3 HT 0-2
Kayserispor
📅19/02/2024 · 🕒20:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✗ 2nd Score 1-0 ✗
Turkey - Super League – 2023/2024

Başakşehir FK vs Kayserispor Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
44%
1.92
Draw
26%
3.35
Away
30%
3.34
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
1.91
Over 2.5
50%
1.8
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.73
No
49%
1.99
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
26%
3.45
2-3 Goals
43%
1.79
4-5 Goals
21%
3.46
6+ Goals
10%
13.15
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.45 — our 26% vs market 23.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
2.66
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
7%
13.3
X/1
16%
4.48
X/2
13%
7.49
X/X
11%
4.77
2/1
7%
24.45
2/2
11%
5.48
2/X
8%
13.75
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
43%
Home Win
48%
-4.3pp
26%
Draw
26%
+0.3pp
30%
Away Win
26%
+4.0pp
50%
Under 2.5
48%
+1.9pp
50%
Over 2.5
52%
-1.9pp
51%
BTTS Yes
54%
-2.6pp
49%
BTTS No
46%
+2.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Başakşehir FK v Kayserispor — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Başakşehir FK EU Bookmakers 52%
Head to Head
AWAY Kayserispor EU Bookmakers 30%
+6% / +19% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +2% / +0%
1.44/1.19 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.06/1.55
+7% / +17% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -1% / -6%
52% Ball Possession 48%
14 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
350 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 316 · 76%
21.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.1
16.4 Crosses 16.9
1.9 Yellow Cards 2.2

Başakşehir FK vs Kayserispor Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Başakşehir FK
1W-2D-3L
AWAY Kayserispor
0.33 Avg Goals (FT) 0.50
0.68 xG 0.77
60% Ball Possession 40%
11 Total Shots 9
3 Shots on Target 2
4 Corners 5
521 Passes 297
86% Pass Accuracy 79%
21 Box Touches 17
19 Crosses 19
2 Yellow Cards 1
The Meetings
02.10.2023 Kayserispor Kayserispor 0-0 HT 0-0 Başakşehir FK Başakşehir FK TSL
02.02.2023 Kayserispor Kayserispor 1-0 HT 0-0 Başakşehir FK Başakşehir FK TSL
21.08.2022 Başakşehir FK Başakşehir FK 2-0 HT 1-0 Kayserispor Kayserispor TSL
19.01.2022 Kayserispor Kayserispor 1-0 HT 0-0 Başakşehir FK Başakşehir FK TSL
28.08.2021 Başakşehir FK Başakşehir FK 0-1 HT 0-1 Kayserispor Kayserispor TSL
11.05.2021 Başakşehir FK Başakşehir FK 0-0 HT 0-0 Kayserispor Kayserispor TSL

Başakşehir FK 2-3 Kayserispor — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Başakşehir FK
2-3
AWAY Kayserispor
2.54 xG 1.56
57% Ball Possession 43%
19 Total Shots 14
7 Shots on Target 7
7 Corners 3
336 Passes 232
79% Pass Accuracy 71%
28 Box Touches 16
23 Crosses 14
2 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Başakşehir FK vs Kayserispor
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Kayserispor edged past Başakşehir FK 3-2 away from home. Half-time: 0-2. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match lean was Başakşehir FK at 43%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Başakşehir FK had 57% of the ball to Kayserispor's 43%, shots finished 19-14, expected goals 2.54 to 1.56 — the balance of chances actually favoured Başakşehir FK.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Kayserispor led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.33 goals for Başakşehir FK and 0.50 for Kayserispor.

What was the final score of Başakşehir FK vs Kayserispor?

Başakşehir FK 2-3 Kayserispor in the Turkey - Super League on 19/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Başakşehir FK vs Kayserispor?

Before kick-off our model rated a Başakşehir FK win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Başakşehir FK 43%, draw 26%, Kayserispor 30%. The final score 2-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Başakşehir FK) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Başakşehir FK) ✓ BTTS Yes
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