Cerro Largo 1-2 CA Penarol — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Uruguay - Premier League, 19 Feb 2024

📅19/02/2024 · 🕒02:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
28%
4.65
Draw
24%
3.35
Away
48%
1.71
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
62%
1.52
Over 2.5
38%
2.38
Both Teams to Score
Yes
41%
2.29
No
59%
1.55
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
38%
2-3 Goals
39%
4-5 Goals
16%
6+ Goals
7%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
9%
1/2
9%
1/X
7%
X/1
12%
X/2
18%
X/X
12%
2/1
7%
2/2
21%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Away Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
28%
Home Win
19%
+9.8pp
24%
Draw
27%
-2.6pp
48%
Away Win
55%
-7.2pp
62%
Under 2.5
62%
+0.6pp
38%
Over 2.5
38%
-0.6pp
41%
BTTS Yes
40%
+1.3pp
59%
BTTS No
60%
-1.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Cerro Largo EU Bookmakers 22%
Head to Head
AWAY CA Penarol EU Bookmakers 58%
+8% / +6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -3% / +0%
0.81/1.08 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.29/0.65
-5% / +30% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -25% / +21%
46% Ball Possession 54%
9 Total Shots 13
3 Shots on Target 6
3 Corners 6
222 · 70% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 356 · 79%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
3.4 Yellow Cards 2.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Cerro Largo
1W-3D-2L
AWAY CA Penarol
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
39% Ball Possession 61%
6 Total Shots 12
2 Shots on Target 6
2 Corners 8
4 Yellow Cards 2
15.11.2023 CA Penarol CA Penarol 1-1 HT 0-1 Cerro Largo Cerro Largo URU
10.04.2023 Cerro Largo Cerro Largo 0-0 HT 0-0 CA Penarol CA Penarol URU
23.10.2022 Cerro Largo Cerro Largo 0-2 HT 0-1 CA Penarol CA Penarol URU
04.06.2022 CA Penarol CA Penarol 0-1 HT 0-0 Cerro Largo Cerro Largo URU
23.11.2021 CA Penarol CA Penarol 2-2 HT 0-2 Cerro Largo Cerro Largo URU
07.08.2021 Cerro Largo Cerro Largo 0-1 HT 0-0 CA Penarol CA Penarol URU
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Cerro Largo
1-2
AWAY CA Penarol
46% Ball Possession 54%
9 Total Shots 7
4 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 6
3 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Cerro Largo vs CA Penarol
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

CA Penarol squeezed past Cerro Largo 2-1 away from home. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

As we said in the preview, our model had CA Penarol as the likeliest winner at 48%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (62%), no to both teams scoring (59%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Cerro Largo had 46% of the ball to CA Penarol's 54%, shots finished 9-7.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, CA Penarol led the recent series with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Cerro Largo and 1.00 for CA Penarol.

What was the final score of Cerro Largo vs CA Penarol?

Cerro Largo 1-2 CA Penarol in the Uruguay - Premier League on 19/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Cerro Largo vs CA Penarol?

Before kick-off our model rated an CA Penarol win the most likely single outcome at about 48%, with the full match-result split Cerro Largo 28%, draw 24%, CA Penarol 48%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (CA Penarol) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (CA Penarol) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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