Blyth Spartans 3-2 Buxton — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - Conference, 19 Mar 2024

📅19/03/2024 · 🕒22:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
28%
2.67
Draw
25%
3.28
Away
47%
2.32
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
1.91
Over 2.5
48%
1.8
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.68
No
52%
2.06
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
29%
3.43
2-3 Goals
39%
1.79
4-5 Goals
23%
3.46
6+ Goals
9%
13.25
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.43 — our 29% vs market 23.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
8%
1/2
6%
1/X
8%
X/1
13%
X/2
18%
X/X
12%
2/1
7%
2/2
23%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
28%
Home Win
34%
-5.4pp
25%
Draw
27%
-1.9pp
46%
Away Win
39%
+7.2pp
52%
Under 2.5
48%
+3.3pp
48%
Over 2.5
52%
-3.3pp
48%
BTTS Yes
56%
-7.7pp
52%
BTTS No
44%
+7.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Blyth Spartans EU Bookmakers 37%
Head to Head
AWAY Buxton EU Bookmakers 43%
-4% / -22% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +9% / +9%
1.24/1.45 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.78/0.76
-8% / -11% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +23% / +71%
50% Ball Possession 50%
12 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
352 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 391 · 80%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.7 Yellow Cards 2.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Blyth Spartans
2W-0D-2L
AWAY Buxton
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 2.25
55% Ball Possession 45%
10 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 6
2 Yellow Cards 3
26.08.2023 Buxton Buxton 3-0 HT 2-0 Blyth Spartans Blyth Spartans İCON
28.01.2023 Blyth Spartans Blyth Spartans 0-3 HT 0-1 Buxton Buxton İCON
19.11.2022 Blyth Spartans Blyth Spartans 4-2 HT 1-2 Buxton Buxton FAK
27.08.2022 Buxton Buxton 1-2 HT 1-0 Blyth Spartans Blyth Spartans İCON
POST-MATCH Blyth Spartans vs Buxton
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Blyth Spartans edged past Buxton 3-2. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match lean was Buxton at 46%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 48%.

Coming into the game, across their last 4 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Blyth Spartans and 2.25 for Buxton.

What was the final score of Blyth Spartans vs Buxton?

Blyth Spartans 3-2 Buxton in the England - Conference on 19/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Blyth Spartans vs Buxton?

Before kick-off our model rated an Buxton win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split Blyth Spartans 28%, draw 25%, Buxton 46%. The final score 3-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Buxton) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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