Stjarnan 1-0 Valur — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Iceland - Urvalsdeild, 19 Apr 2024

Stjarnan
1-0 HT 1-0
Valur
📅19/04/2024 · 🕒22:15 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 ✗ 2nd Score 2-1 ✗
Iceland - Urvalsdeild – 2024

Stjarnan vs Valur Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
40%
2.67
Draw
26%
3.54
Away
34%
2.16
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
45%
2.38
Over 2.5
55%
1.52
Both Teams to Score
Yes
56%
1.46
No
44%
2.51
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
2-3 Goals
34%
4-5 Goals
30%
6+ Goals
12%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
1/2
5%
1/X
8%
X/1
12%
X/2
18%
X/X
12%
2/1
8%
2/2
11%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
40%
Home Win
33%
+7.1pp
26%
Draw
24%
+1.0pp
34%
Away Win
42%
-8.0pp
45%
Under 2.5
38%
+6.6pp
55%
Over 2.5
62%
-6.6pp
56%
BTTS Yes
64%
-7.9pp
44%
BTTS No
36%
+7.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Stjarnan v Valur — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Stjarnan EU Bookmakers 37%
Head to Head
AWAY Valur EU Bookmakers 46%
-1% / +6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -1% / -5%
1.90/1.26 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.44/1.64
+21% / +15% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +6% / -3%
47% Ball Possession 53%
12 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
320 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 345 · 78%
26.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 32.1
14.5 Crosses 20.5
1.6 Yellow Cards 2.9

Stjarnan vs Valur Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Stjarnan
2W-0D-4L
AWAY Valur
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 2.33
1.41 xG 1.37
53% Ball Possession 47%
12 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 6
8 Corners 5
376 Passes 359
81% Pass Accuracy 80%
31 Box Touches 34
18 Crosses 19
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
17.09.2023 Valur Valur 2-0 HT 1-0 Stjarnan Stjarnan İZL
17.07.2023 Stjarnan Stjarnan 2-0 HT 1-0 Valur Valur İZL
29.04.2023 Valur Valur 3-2 HT 2-0 Stjarnan Stjarnan İZL
16.10.2022 Valur Valur 3-0 HT 1-0 Stjarnan Stjarnan İZL
14.08.2022 Valur Valur 6-1 HT 3-1 Stjarnan Stjarnan İZL
15.05.2022 Stjarnan Stjarnan 1-0 HT 0-0 Valur Valur İZL

Stjarnan 1-0 Valur — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Stjarnan
1-0
AWAY Valur
1.32 xG 1.53
55% Ball Possession 45%
12 Total Shots 15
4 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 9
355 Passes 257
84% Pass Accuracy 75%
28 Box Touches 28
12 Crosses 21
3 Yellow Cards 5
POST-MATCH Stjarnan vs Valur
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Stjarnan squeezed past Valur 1-0.

Our pre-match split (40% / 26% / 34%) promised a tight game; Stjarnan found the edge the numbers couldn't. The goals read — over 2.5 goals (55%), both teams to score (56%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Stjarnan had 55% of the ball to Valur's 45%, shots finished 12-15, expected goals 1.32 to 1.53.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Valur led the recent series with 4 wins. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Stjarnan and 2.33 for Valur.

What was the final score of Stjarnan vs Valur?

Stjarnan 1-0 Valur in the Iceland - Urvalsdeild on 19/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Stjarnan vs Valur?

Before kick-off our model rated a Stjarnan win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Stjarnan 40%, draw 26%, Valur 34%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Stjarnan) — while Over 2.5, BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Stjarnan) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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