Turan Tovuz 1-4 Sumqayıt — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Azerbaijan - Super League, 19 Apr 2024

📅19/04/2024 · 🕒15:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
39%
2.05
Draw
28%
3.11
Away
33%
3.25
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
59%
1.64
Over 2.5
41%
2.15
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
1.9
No
55%
1.81
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
33%
2-3 Goals
40%
4-5 Goals
19%
6+ Goals
8%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
1/2
6%
1/X
5%
X/1
14%
X/2
11%
X/X
18%
2/1
5%
2/2
16%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
39%
Home Win
45%
-5.4pp
28%
Draw
28%
-0.9pp
33%
Away Win
27%
+6.2pp
59%
Under 2.5
57%
+1.4pp
41%
Over 2.5
43%
-1.4pp
45%
BTTS Yes
49%
-4.0pp
55%
BTTS No
51%
+4.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Turan Tovuz EU Bookmakers 49%
Head to Head
AWAY Sumqayıt EU Bookmakers 31%
+3% / +3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +22% / +34%
2.07/1.32 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.16/0.80
+81% / -33% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +21% / +70%
51% Ball Possession 49%
14 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 3
341 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 291 · 75%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
3.0 Yellow Cards 2.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Turan Tovuz
1W-3D-2L
AWAY Sumqayıt
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
18.02.2024 Sumqayıt Sumqayıt 0-0 HT 0-0 Turan Tovuz Turan Tovuz AZERS
02.12.2023 Turan Tovuz Turan Tovuz 2-2 HT 0-2 Sumqayıt Sumqayıt AZERS
23.09.2023 Sumqayıt Sumqayıt 0-0 HT 0-0 Turan Tovuz Turan Tovuz AZERS
31.03.2023 Turan Tovuz Turan Tovuz 2-3 HT 2-1 Sumqayıt Sumqayıt AZERS
30.01.2023 Sumqayıt Sumqayıt 2-1 HT 1-1 Turan Tovuz Turan Tovuz AZERS
28.10.2022 Turan Tovuz Turan Tovuz 1-0 HT 0-0 Sumqayıt Sumqayıt AZERS
POST-MATCH Turan Tovuz vs Sumqayıt
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Sumqayıt swept aside Turan Tovuz 4-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-2. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match split (39% / 28% / 33%) promised a tight game; Sumqayıt found the edge the numbers couldn't. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (59%), no to both teams scoring (55%) — went the other way, though.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Sumqayıt led the recent series with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Turan Tovuz and 1.17 for Sumqayıt.

What was the final score of Turan Tovuz vs Sumqayıt?

Turan Tovuz 1-4 Sumqayıt in the Azerbaijan - Super League on 19/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Turan Tovuz vs Sumqayıt?

Before kick-off our model rated a Turan Tovuz win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Turan Tovuz 39%, draw 28%, Sumqayıt 33%. The final score 1-4 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Turan Tovuz) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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