Aurora 2-3 Independiente Petrolero — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Bolivia - LFPB Küme Düşme, 19 Apr 2024

📅19/04/2024 · 🕒03:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
52%
1.75
Draw
23%
3.72
Away
25%
4.04
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
1.91
Over 2.5
51%
1.8
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.81
No
51%
1.9
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
27%
2-3 Goals
40%
4-5 Goals
22%
6+ Goals
11%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
25%
1/2
5%
1/X
6%
X/1
14%
X/2
11%
X/X
10%
2/1
13%
2/2
9%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
52%
Home Win
54%
-2.2pp
23%
Draw
24%
-1.1pp
25%
Away Win
22%
+3.2pp
49%
Under 2.5
48%
+0.7pp
51%
Over 2.5
52%
-0.7pp
49%
BTTS Yes
51%
-2.2pp
51%
BTTS No
49%
+2.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Aurora EU Bookmakers 57%
Head to Head
AWAY Independiente Petrolero EU Bookmakers 25%
-6% / -11% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +5% / +0%
2.03/0.80 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.88/1.24
+23% / -19% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +2% / -2%
54% Ball Possession 46%
15 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
312 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 192 · 64%
27.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 13.4
27.4 Crosses 15.8
2.2 Yellow Cards 3.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Aurora
1W-2D-1L
AWAY Independiente Petrolero
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.25
1.41 xG 0.82
49% Ball Possession 51%
14 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
242 Passes 296
74% Pass Accuracy 77%
21 Box Touches 18
17 Crosses 23
2 Yellow Cards 3
06.08.2023 Independiente Petrolero Independiente Petrolero 1-1 HT 0-0 Aurora Aurora BOLİ
05.03.2023 Aurora Aurora 2-0 HT 1-0 Independiente Petrolero Independiente Petrolero BOLİ
11.10.2022 Independiente Petrolero Independiente Petrolero 1-1 HT 0-1 Aurora Aurora BOLİ
28.09.2021 Independiente Petrolero Independiente Petrolero 3-0 HT 1-0 Aurora Aurora BOLİ
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Aurora
2-3
AWAY Independiente Petrolero
2.55 xG 1.21
60% Ball Possession 40%
21 Total Shots 14
8 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 4
346 Passes 203
81% Pass Accuracy 69%
32 Box Touches 20
24 Crosses 15
4 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Aurora vs Independiente Petrolero
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Independiente Petrolero nicked a narrow win over Aurora 3-2 away from home. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match lean was Aurora at 52%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 51% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

On the day, Aurora had 60% of the ball to Independiente Petrolero's 40%, shots finished 21-14, expected goals 2.55 to 1.21 — the balance of chances actually favoured Aurora.

For context: across their last 4 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Aurora and 1.25 for Independiente Petrolero.

What was the final score of Aurora vs Independiente Petrolero?

Aurora 2-3 Independiente Petrolero in the Bolivia - LFPB Küme Düşme on 19/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Aurora vs Independiente Petrolero?

Before kick-off our model rated a Aurora win the most likely single outcome at about 52%, with the full match-result split Aurora 52%, draw 23%, Independiente Petrolero 25%. The final score 2-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5 — while Match Result (Aurora), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Aurora) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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