Tukums II 2-0 Progress / AFA Olaine — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Latvia - 1st Division, 19 Apr 2024

📅19/04/2024 · 🕒19:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
40%
2.09
Draw
20%
3.72
Away
40%
2.79
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
40%
2.63
Over 2.5
60%
1.44
Both Teams to Score
Yes
57%
1.38
No
43%
2.81
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
18%
2-3 Goals
38%
4-5 Goals
30%
6+ Goals
14%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
1/2
5%
1/X
4%
X/1
17%
X/2
14%
X/X
9%
2/1
4%
2/2
21%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
40%
Home Win
44%
-4.5pp
20%
Draw
24%
-3.3pp
40%
Away Win
32%
+7.9pp
40%
Under 2.5
34%
+5.6pp
60%
Over 2.5
66%
-5.6pp
57%
BTTS Yes
68%
-11.8pp
43%
BTTS No
32%
+11.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Tukums II EU Bookmakers 48%
Head to Head
AWAY Progress / AFA Olaine EU Bookmakers 36%
-7% / -7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +7% / +7%
1.00/1.00 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.48/2.29
-54% / +36% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +16% / -16%
50% Ball Possession 50%
14 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 4
335 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 373 · 80%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Tukums II
1W-0D-1L
AWAY Progress / AFA Olaine
2.50 Avg Goals (FT) 4.00
02.09.2023 Tukums II Tukums II 3-1 HT 3-0 Progress / AFA Olaine Progress / AFA Olaine LET1
06.05.2023 Progress / AFA Olaine Progress / AFA Olaine 7-2 HT 1-0 Tukums II Tukums II LET1
POST-MATCH Tukums II vs Progress / AFA Olaine
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Tukums II got the better of Progress / AFA Olaine 2-0. Half-time: 1-0.

We called this one close before kick-off — 40% / 20% / 40% — and on the day Tukums II made the difference. The goals read — over 2.5 goals (60%), both teams to score (57%) — went the other way, though.

For context: across their last 2 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece. Those games averaged 2.50 goals for Tukums II and 4.00 for Progress / AFA Olaine.

What was the final score of Tukums II vs Progress / AFA Olaine?

Tukums II 2-0 Progress / AFA Olaine in the Latvia - 1st Division on 19/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Tukums II vs Progress / AFA Olaine?

Before kick-off our model rated a Tukums II win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Tukums II 40%, draw 20%, Progress / AFA Olaine 40%. The final score 2-0 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

◐ Match Result — model had it level (40/20/40) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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