Rio Ave 1-1 Arouca — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - Premier League, 19 Apr 2024

Rio Ave
1-1 HT 1-0
Arouca
📅19/04/2024 · 🕒22:15 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✓ 2nd Score 1-0 ✗
Portugal - Premier League – 2023/2024

Rio Ave vs Arouca Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
37%
2.38
Draw
30%
3.11
Away
33%
2.72
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
56%
1.71
Over 2.5
44%
2.03
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.81
No
52%
1.9
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
30%
2.86
2-3 Goals
40%
1.77
4-5 Goals
21%
4.08
6+ Goals
9%
19.35
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
3.62
1/2
8%
32.5
1/X
7%
13.2
X/1
14%
5.22
X/2
9%
5.7
X/X
14%
4.16
2/1
6%
30.5
2/2
16%
4.11
2/X
9%
13.3
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
37%
Home Win
38%
-0.9pp
30%
Draw
29%
+1.1pp
33%
Away Win
33%
-0.1pp
56%
Under 2.5
55%
+1.7pp
44%
Over 2.5
45%
-1.7pp
48%
BTTS Yes
51%
-3.2pp
52%
BTTS No
49%
+3.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Rio Ave v Arouca — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Rio Ave EU Bookmakers 42%
Head to Head
AWAY Arouca EU Bookmakers 37%
+1% / +7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / +2%
1.18/0.83 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.69/1.32
-11% / +12% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +55% / +4%
53% Ball Possession 47%
13 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 4
344 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 285 · 77%
18.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.3
19.2 Crosses 16.8
2.9 Yellow Cards 2.2

Rio Ave vs Arouca Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Rio Ave
3W-1D-2L
AWAY Arouca
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
2.05 xG 0.98
48% Ball Possession 52%
12 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 6
280 Passes 360
77% Pass Accuracy 78%
29 Box Touches 16
24 Crosses 20
4 Yellow Cards 3
The Meetings
10.12.2023 Arouca Arouca 2-2 HT 0-2 Rio Ave Rio Ave POR
30.07.2023 Arouca Arouca 2-0 HT 1-0 Rio Ave Rio Ave PORLC
28.04.2023 Rio Ave Rio Ave 1-0 HT 0-0 Arouca Arouca POR
12.11.2022 Arouca Arouca 0-1 HT 0-0 Rio Ave Rio Ave POR
01.08.2021 Arouca Arouca 0-1 HT 0-1 Rio Ave Rio Ave PORLC
30.05.2021 Rio Ave Rio Ave 0-2 HT 0-1 Arouca Arouca POR

Rio Ave 1-1 Arouca — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Rio Ave
1-1
AWAY Arouca
0.63 xG 1.11
40% Ball Possession 60%
5 Total Shots 19
2 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 6
250 Passes 437
74% Pass Accuracy 84%
10 Box Touches 16
13 Crosses 13
3 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Rio Ave vs Arouca
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Rio Ave and Arouca shared the points in a 1-1 draw. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match split (37% / 30% / 33%) said coin-flip, and the draw proved it right. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (56%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Rio Ave had 40% of the ball to Arouca's 60%, shots finished 5-19, expected goals 0.63 to 1.11.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Rio Ave had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Rio Ave and 1.00 for Arouca.

What was the final score of Rio Ave vs Arouca?

Rio Ave 1-1 Arouca in the Portugal - Premier League on 19/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Rio Ave vs Arouca?

Before kick-off our model rated a Rio Ave win the most likely single outcome at about 37%, with the full match-result split Rio Ave 37%, draw 30%, Arouca 33%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Rio Ave), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Rio Ave) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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