Krasnodar 2-0 Fakel — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Russia - Premier League, 19 Apr 2024

📅19/04/2024 · 🕒19:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
48%
1.75
Draw
29%
3.45
Away
23%
4.47
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
59%
1.68
Over 2.5
41%
2.07
Both Teams to Score
Yes
42%
2.03
No
58%
1.7
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
33%
2.74
2-3 Goals
40%
1.77
4-5 Goals
19%
4.26
6+ Goals
8%
21.15
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.74 — our 33% vs market 30.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
26%
2.26
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
8%
15.45
X/1
16%
3.81
X/2
8%
9.48
X/X
12%
4.42
2/1
7%
27.0
2/2
9%
8.03
2/X
8%
16.4
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
48%
Home Win
54%
-5.5pp
28%
Draw
26%
+2.2pp
23%
Away Win
20%
+3.3pp
59%
Under 2.5
56%
+3.6pp
41%
Over 2.5
44%
-3.6pp
42%
BTTS Yes
45%
-3.1pp
58%
BTTS No
55%
+3.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Krasnodar EU Bookmakers 57%
Head to Head
AWAY Fakel EU Bookmakers 22%
+3% / +16% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +2% / +12%
1.71/1.07 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.88/1.34
+8% / -3% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +2% / -5%
55% Ball Possession 45%
14 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
356 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 259 · 72%
24.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 15.8
14.6 Crosses 14.1
2.3 Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Krasnodar
0W-3D-0L
AWAY Fakel
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
2.07 xG 1.29
65% Ball Possession 35%
17 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 7
4 Corners 4
427 Passes 178
81% Pass Accuracy 66%
23 Box Touches 19
15 Crosses 23
2 Yellow Cards 2
25.08.2023 Fakel Fakel 0-0 HT 0-0 Krasnodar Krasnodar RUS
05.11.2022 Fakel Fakel 3-3 HT 1-2 Krasnodar Krasnodar RUS
17.07.2022 Krasnodar Krasnodar 2-2 HT 2-1 Fakel Fakel RUS
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Krasnodar
2-0
AWAY Fakel
1.74 xG 0.31
70% Ball Possession 30%
20 Total Shots 5
7 Shots on Target 1
4 Corners 1
485 Passes 171
86% Pass Accuracy 69%
26 Box Touches 9
12 Crosses 5
1 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Krasnodar vs Fakel
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Krasnodar got the better of Fakel 2-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Krasnodar as the likeliest winner at 48%, and the 2-0 landed on that lead. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (59%), no to both teams scoring (58%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Krasnodar had 70% of the ball to Fakel's 30%, shots finished 20-5, expected goals 1.74 to 0.31.

For context: across their last 3 meetings in our records, honours were even at 0 apiece, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Krasnodar and 1.67 for Fakel.

What was the final score of Krasnodar vs Fakel?

Krasnodar 2-0 Fakel in the Russia - Premier League on 19/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Krasnodar vs Fakel?

Before kick-off our model rated a Krasnodar win the most likely single outcome at about 48%, with the full match-result split Krasnodar 48%, draw 28%, Fakel 23%. The final score 2-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Krasnodar), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Krasnodar) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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