Corinthians 2-1 Sport Recife — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Serie A, 19 Apr 2025

Corinthians
2-1 HT 0-1
Sport Recife
📅19/04/2025 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 0-0 ✗
Brazil - Serie A – 2025

Corinthians vs Sport Recife Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
53%
1.75
Draw
26%
3.35
Away
21%
4.47
Under/Over 2.5
Under
58%
1.68
Over
42%
2.07
Both Teams to Score
Yes
41%
1.99
No Pick
59%
1.73
Total Goals
0-1 ✗
33%
2.82
2-3
38%
1.81
4-5
21%
4.35
6+
8%
21.4
Value flag · 0-1 at 2.82 — our 33% vs market 30.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
22%
2.3
1/2
4%
35.0
1/X
6%
14.7
X/1
24%
4.17
X/2
9%
9.68
X/X
12%
4.44
2/1
8%
27.5
2/2
7%
8.33
2/X
8%
16.55
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
◎
Our Pick
BTTS No — 59% ✗
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Home Win Under 2.5 BTTS No — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
53%
Home Win
54%
-0.3pp
26%
Draw
27%
-0.9pp
21%
Away Win
20%
+1.1pp
58%
Under 2.5
56%
+2.2pp
42%
Over 2.5
44%
-2.2pp
41%
BTTS Yes
46%
-5.0pp
59%
BTTS No
54%
+5.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Corinthians v Sport Recife — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Corinthians EU Bookmakers 57%
Head to Head
AWAY Sport Recife EU Bookmakers 22%
+9% / +9% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -9% / -12%
1.56/0.88 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.80/1.66
+34% / +12% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -27% / -9%
55% Ball Possession 45%
16 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 4
386 · 84% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 305 · 79%
24.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 14.8
21.5 Crosses 18.7
2.0 Yellow Cards 2.0

Corinthians vs Sport Recife Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Corinthians
3W-1D-2L
AWAY Sport Recife
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
1.61 xG 0.89
60% Ball Possession 40%
13 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
500 Passes 312
87% Pass Accuracy 80%
19 Box Touches 11
22 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
09.10.2021 Sport Recife Sport Recife 1-0 HT 0-0 Corinthians Corinthians BR1
25.06.2021 Corinthians Corinthians 2-1 HT 1-0 Sport Recife Sport Recife BR1
22.01.2021 Corinthians Corinthians 3-0 HT 1-0 Sport Recife Sport Recife BR1
24.09.2020 Sport Recife Sport Recife 1-0 HT 1-0 Corinthians Corinthians BR1
17.09.2018 Corinthians Corinthians 2-1 HT 0-1 Sport Recife Sport Recife BR1
20.05.2018 Sport Recife Sport Recife 1-1 HT 0-0 Corinthians Corinthians BR1

Corinthians 2-1 Sport Recife — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Corinthians
2-1
AWAY Sport Recife
2.16 xG 0.39
58% Ball Possession 42%
17 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 2
5 Corners 4
447 Passes 292
86% Pass Accuracy 81%
32 Box Touches 15
9 Crosses 19
3 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Corinthians vs Sport Recife
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Corinthians squeezed past Sport Recife 2-1. It was 0-1 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Corinthians as the likeliest winner at 53%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (58%), no to both teams scoring (59%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Corinthians had 58% of the ball to Sport Recife's 42%, shots finished 17-10, expected goals 2.16 to 0.39 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Corinthians's control.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Corinthians had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Corinthians and 0.83 for Sport Recife.

What was the final score of Corinthians vs Sport Recife?

Corinthians 2-1 Sport Recife in the Brazil - Serie A on 19/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Corinthians vs Sport Recife?

Before kick-off our model rated a Corinthians win the most likely single outcome at about 53%, with the full match-result split Corinthians 53%, draw 26%, Sport Recife 21%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Corinthians) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Corinthians) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →