Galatasaray 0-1 Fenerbahçe — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Turkey - Super League, 19 May 2024

📅19/05/2024 · 🕒19:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
33%
2.18
Draw
29%
3.64
Away
38%
2.69
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
2.61
Over 2.5
50%
1.45
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.39
No
49%
2.75
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
31%
6.01
2-3 Goals
33%
2.07
4-5 Goals
26%
2.57
6+ Goals
10%
5.75
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 6.01 — our 31% vs market 12.3%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
12%
2.98
1/2
6%
25.5
1/X
6%
12.5
X/1
13%
5.52
X/2
13%
6.55
X/X
15%
6.11
2/1
8%
21.85
2/2
19%
3.78
2/X
8%
12.6
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
33%
Home Win
42%
-9.5pp
29%
Draw
24%
+4.8pp
38%
Away Win
34%
+4.6pp
50%
Under 2.5
35%
+15.7pp
50%
Over 2.5
65%
-15.7pp
51%
BTTS Yes
68%
-16.8pp
49%
BTTS No
32%
+16.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Galatasaray EU Bookmakers 46%
Head to Head
AWAY Fenerbahçe EU Bookmakers 37%
-4% / -5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +2%
1.51/0.87 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.43/1.44
-4% / +16% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -15% / +19%
50% Ball Possession 50%
13 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
358 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 359 · 81%
25.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.8
18.9 Crosses 16.2
2.9 Yellow Cards 2.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Galatasaray
3W-1D-2L
AWAY Fenerbahçe
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
1.12 xG 0.87
50% Ball Possession 50%
11 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
290 Passes 298
76% Pass Accuracy 77%
20 Box Touches 21
16 Crosses 16
4 Yellow Cards 3
24.12.2023 Fenerbahçe Fenerbahçe 0-0 HT 0-0 Galatasaray Galatasaray TSL
04.06.2023 Galatasaray Galatasaray 3-0 HT 1-0 Fenerbahçe Fenerbahçe TSL
08.01.2023 Fenerbahçe Fenerbahçe 0-3 HT 0-1 Galatasaray Galatasaray TSL
10.04.2022 Fenerbahçe Fenerbahçe 2-0 HT 1-0 Galatasaray Galatasaray TSL
21.11.2021 Galatasaray Galatasaray 1-2 HT 1-1 Fenerbahçe Fenerbahçe TSL
06.02.2021 Fenerbahçe Fenerbahçe 0-1 HT 0-0 Galatasaray Galatasaray TSL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Galatasaray
0-1
AWAY Fenerbahçe
0.67 xG 1.41
69% Ball Possession 31%
10 Total Shots 11
0 Shots on Target 1
1 Corners 5
393 Passes 135
83% Pass Accuracy 65%
19 Box Touches 10
14 Crosses 15
4 Yellow Cards 6
POST-MATCH Galatasaray vs Fenerbahçe
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Fenerbahçe squeezed past Galatasaray 1-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

We called this one close before kick-off — 33% / 29% / 38% — and on the day Fenerbahçe made the difference.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Galatasaray had 69% of the ball to Fenerbahçe's 31%, shots finished 10-11, expected goals 0.67 to 1.41.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Galatasaray had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Galatasaray and 0.67 for Fenerbahçe.

What was the final score of Galatasaray vs Fenerbahçe?

Galatasaray 0-1 Fenerbahçe in the Turkey - Super League on 19/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Galatasaray vs Fenerbahçe?

Before kick-off our model rated an Fenerbahçe win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Galatasaray 33%, draw 29%, Fenerbahçe 38%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Fenerbahçe) — while BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Fenerbahçe) ✗ BTTS Yes
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