Universitario de Vinto 1-1 Santa Cruz — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Bolivia - LFPB Küme Düşme, 19 Jul 2024

📅19/07/2024 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-0 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
57%
1.28
Draw
26%
5.15
Away
17%
8.9
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
2.1
Over 2.5
51%
1.67
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
2.27
No
53%
1.56
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
26%
2-3 Goals
38%
4-5 Goals
24%
6+ Goals
12%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
38%
1/2
6%
1/X
10%
X/1
13%
X/2
6%
X/X
9%
2/1
6%
2/2
5%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
57%
Home Win
74%
-17.6pp
26%
Draw
17%
+9.7pp
17%
Away Win
9%
+8.0pp
49%
Under 2.5
44%
+5.2pp
51%
Over 2.5
56%
-5.2pp
47%
BTTS Yes
40%
+7.1pp
53%
BTTS No
60%
-7.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Universitario de Vinto EU Bookmakers 78%
Head to Head
AWAY Santa Cruz EU Bookmakers 11%
+0% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +11% / +13%
1.38/0.80 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.67/1.75
-40% / +15% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -5% / +3%
59% Ball Possession 41%
17 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 3
410 · 84% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 250 · 75%
21.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 11.7
18.5 Crosses 10.6
2.6 Yellow Cards 2.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Universitario de Vinto
1W-1D-0L
AWAY Santa Cruz
0.50 Avg Goals (FT) 0.00
0.95 xG 0.24
52% Ball Possession 48%
12 Total Shots 8
2 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 4
302 Passes 246
80% Pass Accuracy 76%
18 Box Touches 8
12 Crosses 15
2 Yellow Cards 2
25.11.2023 Santa Cruz Santa Cruz 0-0 HT 0-0 Universitario de Vinto Universitario de Vinto BOLİ
29.05.2023 Universitario de Vinto Universitario de Vinto 1-0 HT 0-0 Santa Cruz Santa Cruz BOLİ
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Universitario de Vinto
1-1
AWAY Santa Cruz
2.03 xG 0.98
63% Ball Possession 37%
14 Total Shots 8
6 Shots on Target 2
8 Corners 3
394 Passes 218
87% Pass Accuracy 81%
24 Box Touches 4
24 Crosses 9
7 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Universitario de Vinto vs Santa Cruz
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Universitario de Vinto and Santa Cruz shared the points in a 1-1 draw. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

By our pre-match numbers this was an upset: we had Universitario de Vinto at 57% and the game still went the other way. Single results are noisy — probabilities earn their keep across thousands of matches, not one.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 51% and both teams to score was close to even at 47%.

On the day, Universitario de Vinto had 63% of the ball to Santa Cruz's 37%, shots finished 14-8, expected goals 2.03 to 0.98.

For context: across their last 2 meetings in our records, Universitario de Vinto had the better of it with 1 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for Universitario de Vinto and 0.00 for Santa Cruz.

What was the final score of Universitario de Vinto vs Santa Cruz?

Universitario de Vinto 1-1 Santa Cruz in the Bolivia - LFPB Küme Düşme on 19/07/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Universitario de Vinto vs Santa Cruz?

Before kick-off our model rated a Universitario de Vinto win the most likely single outcome at about 57%, with the full match-result split Universitario de Vinto 57%, draw 26%, Santa Cruz 17%. The final score 1-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Universitario de Vinto) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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