Hillerod 2-1 Middelfart — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Denmark 1st Division, 19 Jul 2025

📅19/07/2025 · 🕒15:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 3-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
52%
1.45
Draw
25%
4.19
Away
23%
5.64
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
42%
2.07
Over 2.5
58%
1.68
Both Teams to Score
Yes
55%
1.88
No
45%
1.82
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
22%
3.76
2-3 Goals
35%
1.81
4-5 Goals EV+ ✗
31%
3.04
6+ Goals
12%
9.86
Value flag · 4-5 Goals at 3.04 — our 31% vs market 26.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
22%
1.78
1/2
6%
35.0
1/X
4%
17.55
X/1
18%
3.91
X/2
6%
13.4
X/X
14%
6.42
2/1 EV+ ✗
12%
22.0
2/2
11%
11.2
2/X
7%
20.05
Value flag · 2/1 at 22.0 — our 12% vs market 2.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: BTTS Yes ★★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
52%
Home Win
65%
-12.4pp
25%
Draw
21%
+4.1pp
23%
Away Win
15%
+8.3pp
42%
Under 2.5
44%
-2.0pp
58%
Over 2.5
56%
+2.0pp
55%
BTTS Yes
49%
+5.5pp
45%
BTTS No
51%
-5.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Hillerod EU Bookmakers 69%
Head to Head
AWAY Middelfart EU Bookmakers 18%
+8% / +5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +0%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
+47% / -11% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) /
58% Ball Possession 42%
15 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
403 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 253 · 72%
28.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
19.1 Crosses
1.0 Yellow Cards
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Hillerod
2W-0D-0L
AWAY Middelfart
2.50 Avg Goals (FT) 0.50
56% Ball Possession 44%
8 Total Shots 6
5 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 3
2 Yellow Cards 0
09.04.2022 Hillerod Hillerod 2-0 Middelfart Middelfart DAN2
25.09.2021 Middelfart Middelfart 1-3 HT 1-3 Hillerod Hillerod DAN2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Hillerod
2-1
AWAY Middelfart
1.26 xG 0.40
61% Ball Possession 39%
12 Total Shots 4
5 Shots on Target 1
4 Corners 0
511 Passes 309
86% Pass Accuracy 78%
27 Box Touches 10
11 Crosses 11
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Hillerod vs Middelfart
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Hillerod squeezed past Middelfart 2-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we said in the preview, our model had Hillerod as the likeliest winner at 52%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (58%), both teams to score (55%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Hillerod had 61% of the ball to Middelfart's 39%, shots finished 12-4, expected goals 1.26 to 0.40.

Coming into the game, across their last 2 meetings in our records, Hillerod had the better of it with 2 wins. Those games averaged 2.50 goals for Hillerod and 0.50 for Middelfart.

What was the final score of Hillerod vs Middelfart?

Hillerod 2-1 Middelfart in the Denmark 1st Division on 19/07/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Hillerod vs Middelfart?

Before kick-off our model rated a Hillerod win the most likely single outcome at about 52%, with the full match-result split Hillerod 52%, draw 25%, Middelfart 23%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Hillerod), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Hillerod) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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