Metz 1-1 Bastia — Result, Statistics & Match Review — France - Ligue 2, 19 Aug 2024

Metz
1-1 HT 0-1
Bastia
📅19/08/2024 · 🕒21:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✓ 2nd Score 1-0 ✗
France - Ligue 2 – 2024/2025

Metz vs Bastia Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
45%
2.18
Draw
29%
3.11
Away
26%
3.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
57%
1.59
Over 2.5
43%
2.23
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.99
No
51%
1.73
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
33%
2.45
2-3 Goals
37%
1.78
4-5 Goals
20%
4.87
6+ Goals
10%
28.0
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
14%
3.2
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
10%
14.15
X/1
22%
4.54
X/2
12%
6.34
X/X
11%
3.87
2/1
8%
31.5
2/2
10%
5.11
2/X
8%
14.5
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
45%
Home Win
42%
+2.6pp
29%
Draw
29%
-0.1pp
26%
Away Win
29%
-2.5pp
57%
Under 2.5
59%
-1.9pp
43%
Over 2.5
41%
+1.9pp
49%
BTTS Yes
46%
+2.4pp
51%
BTTS No
54%
-2.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Metz v Bastia — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Metz EU Bookmakers 46%
Head to Head
AWAY Bastia EU Bookmakers 32%
+2% / +2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +1%
1.42/0.88 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.09/1.31
+30% / -3% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +12% / -5%
49% Ball Possession 51%
14 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
332 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 350 · 80%
20.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 15.1
17.3 Crosses 17.2
1.5 Yellow Cards 2.2

Metz vs Bastia Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Metz
3W-0D-3L
AWAY Bastia
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
1.16 xG 1.04
49% Ball Possession 51%
12 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
295 Passes 313
76% Pass Accuracy 77%
21 Box Touches 12
19 Crosses 17
1 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
02.06.2023 Metz Metz 3-2 HT 1-0 Bastia Bastia FR2
17.09.2022 Bastia Bastia 1-0 HT 1-0 Metz Metz FR2
17.03.2017 Metz Metz 1-0 HT 0-0 Bastia Bastia FR1
10.12.2016 Bastia Bastia 2-0 HT 1-0 Metz Metz FR1
07.02.2015 Bastia Bastia 2-0 HT 0-0 Metz Metz FR1
20.09.2014 Metz Metz 3-1 HT 1-1 Bastia Bastia FR1

Metz 1-1 Bastia — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Metz
1-1
AWAY Bastia
1.00 xG 0.22
71% Ball Possession 29%
19 Total Shots 4
5 Shots on Target 2
9 Corners 1
627 Passes 207
88% Pass Accuracy 72%
20 Box Touches 7
24 Crosses 5
1 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Metz vs Bastia
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Metz and Bastia shared the points in a 1-1 draw. Half-time: 0-1.

Our pre-match lean was Metz at 45%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (57%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Metz had 71% of the ball to Bastia's 29%, shots finished 19-4, expected goals 1.00 to 0.22.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 3 apiece. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Metz and 1.33 for Bastia.

What was the final score of Metz vs Bastia?

Metz 1-1 Bastia in the France - Ligue 2 on 19/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Metz vs Bastia?

Before kick-off our model rated a Metz win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split Metz 45%, draw 29%, Bastia 26%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Metz), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Metz) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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