New Mexico United 3-1 Sacramento Republic — Result, Statistics & Match Review — USL Championship, 19 Sep 2024

📅19/09/2024 · 🕒04:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
36%
2.27
Draw
25%
3.04
Away
39%
3.02
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
60%
1.52
Over 2.5
40%
2.38
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
2.06
No
54%
1.68
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
32%
2.29
2-3 Goals
40%
1.79
4-5 Goals
20%
5.34
6+ Goals
8%
34.0
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
12%
1/2
4%
1/X
4%
X/1
16%
X/2
13%
X/X
8%
2/1
8%
2/2
23%
2/X
12%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
36%
Home Win
40%
-4.9pp
25%
Draw
30%
-4.7pp
39%
Away Win
30%
+9.7pp
60%
Under 2.5
62%
-2.2pp
40%
Over 2.5
38%
+2.2pp
46%
BTTS Yes
44%
+1.2pp
54%
BTTS No
56%
-1.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME New Mexico United EU Bookmakers 44%
Head to Head
AWAY Sacramento Republic EU Bookmakers 33%
+2% / +19% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -4% / -1%
1.27/1.18 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.22/1.22
+13% / +24% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -3% / -5%
50% Ball Possession 50%
12 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 3
332 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 329 · 76%
19.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.9
15.5 Crosses 17.8
3.0 Yellow Cards 2.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME New Mexico United
1W-2D-3L
AWAY Sacramento Republic
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
0.90 xG 1.11
55% Ball Possession 45%
12 Total Shots 11
3 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 6
358 Passes 265
78% Pass Accuracy 73%
18 Box Touches 19
12 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 2
22.10.2023 Sacramento Republic Sacramento Republic 1-0 HT 1-0 New Mexico United New Mexico United USLP
21.09.2023 Sacramento Republic Sacramento Republic 0-0 HT 0-0 New Mexico United New Mexico United USLP
23.07.2023 New Mexico United New Mexico United 3-0 HT 1-0 Sacramento Republic Sacramento Republic USLP
23.10.2022 Sacramento Republic Sacramento Republic 2-0 HT 0-0 New Mexico United New Mexico United USLP
04.08.2022 New Mexico United New Mexico United 1-2 HT 0-0 Sacramento Republic Sacramento Republic USLP
05.05.2022 Sacramento Republic Sacramento Republic 0-0 HT 0-0 New Mexico United New Mexico United USLP
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME New Mexico United
3-1
AWAY Sacramento Republic
2.34 xG 1.94
48% Ball Possession 52%
13 Total Shots 15
7 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 7
335 Passes 349
84% Pass Accuracy 83%
17 Box Touches 24
5 Crosses 20
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH New Mexico United vs Sacramento Republic
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

New Mexico United saw off Sacramento Republic 3-1. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match split (36% / 25% / 39%) promised a tight game; New Mexico United found the edge the numbers couldn't. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (60%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, New Mexico United had 48% of the ball to Sacramento Republic's 52%, shots finished 13-15, expected goals 2.34 to 1.94.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Sacramento Republic led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for New Mexico United and 0.83 for Sacramento Republic.

What was the final score of New Mexico United vs Sacramento Republic?

New Mexico United 3-1 Sacramento Republic in the USL Championship on 19/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for New Mexico United vs Sacramento Republic?

Before kick-off our model rated an Sacramento Republic win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split New Mexico United 36%, draw 25%, Sacramento Republic 39%. The final score 3-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Sacramento Republic) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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