New Mexico United vs Sacramento Republic Prediction — Model Probabilities
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
New Mexico United v Sacramento Republic — Team-Based Signals
New Mexico United vs Sacramento Republic Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
1-0
HT 1-0
New Mexico United
USLP
0-0
HT 0-0
New Mexico United
USLP
3-0
HT 1-0
Sacramento Republic
USLP
2-0
HT 0-0
New Mexico United
USLP
1-2
HT 0-0
Sacramento Republic
USLP
0-0
HT 0-0
New Mexico United
USLP
New Mexico United 3-1 Sacramento Republic — Actual Match Statistics
New Mexico United saw off Sacramento Republic 3-1. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.
Our pre-match split (36% / 25% / 39%) promised a tight game; New Mexico United found the edge the numbers couldn't. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (60%) — went the other way, though.
On the day, New Mexico United had 48% of the ball to Sacramento Republic's 52%, shots finished 13-15, expected goals 2.34 to 1.94.
For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Sacramento Republic led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for New Mexico United and 0.83 for Sacramento Republic.
What was the final score of New Mexico United vs Sacramento Republic?
New Mexico United 3-1 Sacramento Republic in the USL Championship on 19/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for New Mexico United vs Sacramento Republic?
Before kick-off our model rated an Sacramento Republic win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split New Mexico United 36%, draw 25%, Sacramento Republic 39%. The final score 3-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.