St. Johnstone 2-1 Dunfermline Athletic — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Scotland - Championship, 19 Sep 2025

St. Johnstone
2-1 HT 0-1
Dunfermline Athletic
📅19/09/2025 · 🕒21:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 1-1 ✗
Scotland - Championship – 2025/2026

St. Johnstone vs Dunfermline Athletic Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
49%
1.61
Draw
28%
3.64
Away
23%
4.85
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
55%
1.71
Over 2.5
45%
2.03
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
2.06
No
51%
1.68
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
32%
2.63
2-3 Goals
39%
1.69
4-5 Goals
19%
3.9
6+ Goals
10%
18.55
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.63 — our 32% vs market 30.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
25%
2.06
1/2
8%
34.5
1/X
7%
15.95
X/1
17%
3.84
X/2
6%
10.45
X/X
16%
4.7
2/1
7%
26.0
2/2
9%
9.29
2/X
5%
18.05
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
49%
Home Win
58%
-9.4pp
28%
Draw
24%
+3.4pp
24%
Away Win
18%
+6.0pp
55%
Under 2.5
55%
+0.3pp
45%
Over 2.5
45%
-0.3pp
49%
BTTS Yes
44%
+4.1pp
51%
BTTS No
56%
-4.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

St. Johnstone v Dunfermline Athletic — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME St. Johnstone EU Bookmakers 62%
Head to Head
AWAY Dunfermline Athletic EU Bookmakers 21%
-3% / -6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -11% / -9%
1.99/0.51 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.66/1.59
+8% / +99% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -37% / +9%
52% Ball Possession 48%
14 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
337 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 211 · 64%
– Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area –
– Crosses 2.0
– Yellow Cards 4.0

St. Johnstone vs Dunfermline Athletic Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME St. Johnstone
3W-2D-1L
AWAY Dunfermline Athletic
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
60% Ball Possession 40%
15 Total Shots 5
7 Shots on Target 2
7 Corners 3
The Meetings
15.12.2020 Dunfermline Athletic Dunfermline Athletic 1-1 HT 0-0 St. Johnstone St. Johnstone İKLK
25.02.2012 St. Johnstone St. Johnstone 3-1 HT 2-0 Dunfermline Athletic Dunfermline Athletic İKP
24.12.2011 Dunfermline Athletic Dunfermline Athletic 0-3 HT 0-1 St. Johnstone St. Johnstone İKP
13.08.2011 St. Johnstone St. Johnstone 0-1 HT 0-1 Dunfermline Athletic Dunfermline Athletic İKP
11.04.2009 Dunfermline Athletic Dunfermline Athletic 1-3 HT 1-2 St. Johnstone St. Johnstone İKCL
07.04.2009 St. Johnstone St. Johnstone 0-0 HT 0-0 Dunfermline Athletic Dunfermline Athletic İKCL
POST-MATCH St. Johnstone vs Dunfermline Athletic
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

St. Johnstone squeezed past Dunfermline Athletic 2-1. It was 0-1 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

As we said in the preview, our model had St. Johnstone as the likeliest winner at 49%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (55%) — went the other way, though.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, St. Johnstone had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for St. Johnstone and 0.67 for Dunfermline Athletic.

What was the final score of St. Johnstone vs Dunfermline Athletic?

St. Johnstone 2-1 Dunfermline Athletic in the Scotland - Championship on 19/09/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for St. Johnstone vs Dunfermline Athletic?

Before kick-off our model rated a St. Johnstone win the most likely single outcome at about 49%, with the full match-result split St. Johnstone 49%, draw 28%, Dunfermline Athletic 24%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (St. Johnstone) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (St. Johnstone) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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