Fiorentina (K) 3-2 Lazio (K) — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italya - Women's Serie A, 19 Oct 2024

📅19/10/2024 · 🕒16:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
45%
1.64
Draw
31%
3.8
Away
24%
4.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
2.03
Over 2.5
46%
1.71
Both Teams to Score
Yes
55%
1.73
No
45%
1.99
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
27%
2-3 Goals
44%
4-5 Goals
22%
6+ Goals
7%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
15%
1/2
3%
1/X
14%
X/1
26%
X/2
9%
X/X
10%
2/1
4%
2/2
12%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
44%
Home Win
56%
-12.0pp
31%
Draw
23%
+8.5pp
24%
Away Win
21%
+3.5pp
54%
Under 2.5
45%
+8.5pp
46%
Over 2.5
55%
-8.5pp
55%
BTTS Yes
54%
+0.8pp
45%
BTTS No
46%
-0.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Fiorentina (K) EU Bookmakers 61%
Head to Head
AWAY Lazio (K) EU Bookmakers 24%
+12% / +12% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -26% / -26%
1.91/1.33 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.54/1.57
+118% / -50% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -5% / -23%
52% Ball Possession 48%
14 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
377 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 345 · 76%
32.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 24.0
20.0 Crosses 15.0
2.0 Yellow Cards 0.0
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Fiorentina (K)
3-2
AWAY Lazio (K)
1.31 xG 1.58
45% Ball Possession 55%
15 Total Shots 11
7 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 0
246 Passes 311
71% Pass Accuracy 75%
29 Box Touches 18
8 Crosses 15
3 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Fiorentina (K) vs Lazio (K)
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Fiorentina (K) squeezed past Lazio (K) 3-2. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we said in the preview, our model had Fiorentina (K) as the likeliest winner at 44%, and the 3-2 landed on that lead. We had also flagged both teams to score (55%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Fiorentina (K) had 45% of the ball to Lazio (K)'s 55%, shots finished 15-11, expected goals 1.31 to 1.58.

What was the final score of Fiorentina (K) vs Lazio (K)?

Fiorentina (K) 3-2 Lazio (K) in the Italya - Women's Serie A on 19/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Fiorentina (K) vs Lazio (K)?

Before kick-off our model rated a Fiorentina (K) win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Fiorentina (K) 44%, draw 31%, Lazio (K) 24%. The final score 3-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Fiorentina (K)), BTTS Yes — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Fiorentina (K)) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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