Nacional 0-2 Benfica — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - Premier League, 19 Dec 2024

Nacional
0-2 HT 0-0
Benfica
📅19/12/2024 · 🕒20:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-2 ✓ 2nd Score 0-1 ✗
Portugal - Premier League – 2024/2025

Nacional vs Benfica Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
20%
7.78
Draw
25%
4.95
Away
55%
1.3
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
2.29
Over 2.5
50%
1.56
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.96
No
53%
1.75
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
26%
4.77
2-3 Goals
37%
1.92
4-5 Goals
26%
2.82
6+ Goals
11%
7.77
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.77 — our 26% vs market 16.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
10%
15.3
1/2
7%
22.3
1/X
5%
23.6
X/1
5%
19.65
X/2
16%
3.4
X/X
10%
8.06
2/1
5%
34.5
2/2
32%
1.5
2/X
10%
23.6
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Away Win ★★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
21%
Home Win
10%
+10.4pp
25%
Draw
17%
+7.8pp
55%
Away Win
73%
-18.1pp
50%
Under 2.5
40%
+9.8pp
50%
Over 2.5
60%
-9.8pp
47%
BTTS Yes
47%
+0.2pp
53%
BTTS No
53%
-0.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Nacional v Benfica — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Nacional EU Bookmakers 13%
Head to Head
AWAY Benfica EU Bookmakers 77%
-11% / -17% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -5% / -20%
1.03/2.72 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.89/0.87
-34% / -35% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -11% / +3%
38% Ball Possession 62%
10 Total Shots 14
3 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 7
227 · 70% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 470 · 84%
13.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 29.8
17.1 Crosses 20.1
1.8 Yellow Cards 2.0

Nacional vs Benfica Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Nacional
0W-1D-5L
AWAY Benfica
0.50 Avg Goals (FT) 4.00
0.81 xG 2.92
37% Ball Possession 63%
8 Total Shots 15
2 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 7
216 Passes 417
70% Pass Accuracy 83%
10 Box Touches 30
12 Crosses 20
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
11.05.2021 Nacional Nacional 1-3 HT 1-0 Benfica Benfica POR
25.01.2021 Benfica Benfica 1-1 HT 1-0 Nacional Nacional POR
10.02.2019 Benfica Benfica 10-0 HT 3-0 Nacional Nacional POR
02.09.2018 Nacional Nacional 0-4 HT 0-2 Benfica Benfica POR
05.02.2017 Benfica Benfica 3-0 HT 2-0 Nacional Nacional POR
27.08.2016 Nacional Nacional 1-3 HT 0-1 Benfica Benfica POR

Nacional 0-2 Benfica — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Nacional
0-2
AWAY Benfica
0.16 xG 1.99
33% Ball Possession 67%
5 Total Shots 16
1 Shots on Target 7
4 Corners 11
176 Passes 406
74% Pass Accuracy 84%
6 Box Touches 40
16 Crosses 33
2 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Nacional vs Benfica
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Benfica got the better of Nacional 2-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Benfica as the likeliest winner at 55%, and the 2-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 47%.

On the day, Nacional had 33% of the ball to Benfica's 67%, shots finished 5-16, expected goals 0.16 to 1.99.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Benfica led the recent series with 5 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for Nacional and 4.00 for Benfica.

What was the final score of Nacional vs Benfica?

Nacional 0-2 Benfica in the Portugal - Premier League on 19/12/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Nacional vs Benfica?

Before kick-off our model rated an Benfica win the most likely single outcome at about 55%, with the full match-result split Nacional 21%, draw 25%, Benfica 55%. The final score 0-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Benfica), BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Benfica) ✓ BTTS No
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