Canberra United (K) 2-3 Melbourne Victory (K) — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Australia - W-League, 20 Jan 2024

Canberra United (K)
2-3 HT 1-2
Melbourne Victory (K)
📅20/01/2024 · 🕒09:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 ✗ 2nd Score 2-1 ✗
Australia - W-League – 2023/2024

Canberra United (K) vs Melbourne Victory (K) Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
34%
3.5
Draw
24%
3.8
Away
42%
1.74
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
44%
Over 2.5
56%
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.46
No
50%
2.51
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
28%
2-3 Goals
35%
4-5 Goals
29%
6+ Goals
8%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
26%
1/2
8%
1/X
4%
X/1
4%
X/2
11%
X/X
17%
2/1
4%
2/2
23%
2/X
3%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
34%
Home Win
25%
+9.2pp
24%
Draw
22%
+1.9pp
42%
Away Win
53%
-11.1pp
50%
BTTS Yes
64%
-13.8pp
50%
BTTS No
36%
+13.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Canberra United (K) v Melbourne Victory (K) — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Canberra United (K) EU Bookmakers 29%
Head to Head
AWAY Melbourne Victory (K) EU Bookmakers 57%
-46% / -46% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +0%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
+150% / -75% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) – / –
42% Ball Possession 58%
14 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 5
3 Corners 6
285 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 436 · 82%
– Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area –
– Crosses –
– Yellow Cards –

Canberra United (K) vs Melbourne Victory (K) Head-to-Head — Last 2 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Canberra United (K)
0W-1D-1L
AWAY Melbourne Victory (K)
0.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.04 xG 0.56
48% Ball Possession 52%
12 Total Shots 18
4 Shots on Target 9
4 Corners 6
461 Passes 254
82% Pass Accuracy 74%
23 Box Touches 7
28 Crosses 10
1 Yellow Cards 1
The Meetings
16.12.2023 Melbourne Victory (K) Melbourne Victory (K) 2-0 HT 1-0 Canberra United (K) Canberra United (K) AVUSTW
05.02.2019 Canberra United (K) Canberra United (K) 0-0 HT 0-0 Melbourne Victory (K) Melbourne Victory (K) AVUSTW

Canberra United (K) 2-3 Melbourne Victory (K) — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Canberra United (K)
2-3
AWAY Melbourne Victory (K)
1.66 xG 3.34
41% Ball Possession 59%
13 Total Shots 19
7 Shots on Target 9
4 Corners 5
226 Passes 356
72% Pass Accuracy 79%
25 Box Touches 32
22 Crosses 25
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Canberra United (K) vs Melbourne Victory (K)
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Melbourne Victory (K) edged past Canberra United (K) 3-2 away from home. Half-time: 1-2. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we said in the preview, our model had Melbourne Victory (K) as the likeliest winner at 42%, and the 3-2 landed on that lead. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (56%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Canberra United (K) had 41% of the ball to Melbourne Victory (K)'s 59%, shots finished 13-19, expected goals 1.66 to 3.34 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Melbourne Victory (K)'s control.

Coming into the game, across their last 2 meetings in our records, Melbourne Victory (K) led the recent series with 1 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.00 goals for Canberra United (K) and 1.00 for Melbourne Victory (K).

What was the final score of Canberra United (K) vs Melbourne Victory (K)?

Canberra United (K) 2-3 Melbourne Victory (K) in the Australia - W-League on 20/01/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Canberra United (K) vs Melbourne Victory (K)?

Before kick-off our model rated an Melbourne Victory (K) win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Canberra United (K) 34%, draw 24%, Melbourne Victory (K) 42%. The final score 2-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Melbourne Victory (K)), Over 2.5 — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Melbourne Victory (K)) ✓ Over 2.5
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