Anapolis 1-0 Vila Nova — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Goiano 1, 20 Jan 2024

📅20/01/2024 · 🕒21:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
38%
1.9
Draw
31%
2.94
Away
31%
4.04
Under/Over 2.5
Under Pick
63%
Over
37%
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
No
55%
Total Goals
0-1
36%
2-3
40%
4-5
17%
6+
7%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
22%
1/2
5%
1/X
7%
X/1
12%
X/2
16%
X/X
12%
2/1
4%
2/2
10%
2/X
12%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
Under 2.5 — 63%
Fair price · no betting value
Every market fairly priced — no value edge at these odds. Our Pick = the most likely outcome, not a value bet.
STRENGTH Home Win — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Selection The Market
38%
Home Win
48%
-10.2pp
31%
Draw
30%
+1.1pp
30%
Away Win
21%
+9.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — the market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Anapolis The Market 53%
Head to Head
AWAY Vila Nova The Market 25%
+16% / +16% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +13% / +13%
1.37/0.73 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.00/1.52
-26% / +36% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +123% / +12%
53% Ball Possession 47%
11 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
327 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 311 · 77%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.0 Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Anapolis
1W-1D-2L
AWAY Vila Nova
0.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
50% Ball Possession 50%
12 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
2 Yellow Cards 2
04.03.2023 Vila Nova Vila Nova 0-1 HT 0-0 Anapolis Anapolis BRGO1
22.02.2023 Anapolis Anapolis 0-0 HT 0-0 Vila Nova Vila Nova BRGO1
30.04.2021 Vila Nova Vila Nova 3-1 HT 3-0 Anapolis Anapolis BRGO1
25.04.2021 Anapolis Anapolis 0-3 HT 0-2 Vila Nova Vila Nova BRGO1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Anapolis
1-0
AWAY Vila Nova
39% Ball Possession 61%
10 Total Shots 7
4 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 8
POST-MATCH Anapolis vs Vila Nova
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Anapolis nicked a narrow win over Vila Nova 1-0.

We called this one close before kick-off — 38% / 31% / 30% — and on the day Anapolis made the difference. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (63%), no to both teams scoring (55%) came in.

On the day, Anapolis had 39% of the ball to Vila Nova's 61%, shots finished 10-7.

For context: across their last 4 meetings in our records, Vila Nova led the recent series with 2 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for Anapolis and 1.50 for Vila Nova.

What was the final score of Anapolis vs Vila Nova?

Anapolis 1-0 Vila Nova in the Brazil - Goiano 1 on 20/01/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Anapolis vs Vila Nova?

Before kick-off our model rated a Anapolis win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Anapolis 38%, draw 31%, Vila Nova 30%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Anapolis), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Anapolis) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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