20/01/2024
·
20:00
Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score
1-1
2nd Score
2-1
St Malo US vs Bastia-Borgo Prediction — Model Probabilities
MODEL
iddaakolik
· Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Under/Over 2.5
Under
50%
Over
50%
Both Teams to Score
Yes Pick
51%
No
49%
Total Goals
0-1
26%
2-3
43%
4-5
20%
6+
11%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
1/2
6%
1/X
9%
X/1
20%
X/2
11%
X/X
11%
2/1
8%
2/2
10%
2/X
5%
PRO
iddaakolik
· Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
◎
Our Pick
BTTS Yes — 51% ✗
Fair price · no betting value
Every market fairly priced — no value edge at these odds. Our Pick = the most likely outcome, not a value bet.
Every market fairly priced — no value edge at these odds. Our Pick = the most likely outcome, not a value bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik
Selection
The Market
49%
Home Win
53%
24%
Draw
26%
27%
Away Win
21%
gold — our model
green — our served pick
grey — the market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
St Malo US v Bastia-Borgo — Team-Based Signals
PREVIEW
Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME
St Malo US
The Market 57%
Head to Head
AWAY
Bastia-Borgo
The Market 24%
+0% /
+0%
Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations
-5% /
-5%
–/–
Expected GoalsScored / Conceded
–/–
–
/
–
Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.)
+7%
/
-40%
56%
Ball Possession
44%
14
Total Shots
8
6
Shots on Target
4
5
Corners
4
401 · 80%
PassesSuccessful · Accuracy
268 · 73%
–
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
–
–
Crosses
–
–
Yellow Cards
–
POST-MATCH
St Malo US vs Bastia-Borgo
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened
St Malo US swept aside Bastia-Borgo 3-0.
As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had St Malo US as the likeliest winner at 49%, and the 3-0 landed on that lead.
Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.
What was the final score of St Malo US vs Bastia-Borgo?
St Malo US 3-0 Bastia-Borgo in the France - National League 2 on 20/01/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for St Malo US vs Bastia-Borgo?
Before kick-off our model rated a St Malo US win the most likely single outcome at about 49%, with the full match-result split St Malo US 49%, draw 24%, Bastia-Borgo 27%. The final score 3-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (St Malo US) — while BTTS Yes went the other way.
✓ Match Result (St Malo US)
✗ BTTS Yes
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20 Jan 2024