Bendel Insurance 3-1 Sporting Lagos — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Nigeria NPFL, 20 Jan 2024

📅20/01/2024 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
29%
5.4
Draw
24%
4.19
Away
47%
1.46
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
55%
Over 2.5
45%
Both Teams to Score
Yes
44%
No
56%
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
28%
2-3 Goals
41%
4-5 Goals
18%
6+ Goals
13%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
15%
1/2
7%
1/X
4%
X/1
7%
X/2
15%
X/X
12%
2/1
7%
2/2
25%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
29%
Home Win
15%
+13.3pp
24%
Draw
21%
+3.7pp
47%
Away Win
64%
-17.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Bendel Insurance EU Bookmakers 18%
Head to Head
AWAY Sporting Lagos EU Bookmakers 69%
+0% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +0%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
/ Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) /
43% Ball Possession 57%
8 Total Shots 12
3 Shots on Target 5
3 Corners 5
294 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 471 · 84%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards
POST-MATCH Bendel Insurance vs Sporting Lagos
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Bendel Insurance got the better of Sporting Lagos 3-1. Half-time: 2-0.

Our pre-match lean was Sporting Lagos at 47%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (55%), no to both teams scoring (56%) — went the other way, though.

What was the final score of Bendel Insurance vs Sporting Lagos?

Bendel Insurance 3-1 Sporting Lagos in the Nigeria NPFL on 20/01/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Bendel Insurance vs Sporting Lagos?

Before kick-off our model rated an Sporting Lagos win the most likely single outcome at about 47%, with the full match-result split Bendel Insurance 29%, draw 24%, Sporting Lagos 47%. The final score 3-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Sporting Lagos) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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